equipifi Predicts 75% Surge in Holiday BNPL Transactions for 2026

As the holiday shopping season approaches, equipifi, a prominent provider of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) infrastructure for financial institutions, has unveiled its forecast for 2026. The report highlights a striking 75% year-over-year increase in BNPL gross transaction volume (GTV) during the holiday period, which spans from November 1 to December 31.

This expected surge is attributed to deeper engagement and broader acceptance of BNPL services across the banking landscape. The forecast is based on insights from the equipifi Purchasing Power Index, which monitors both physical and online BNPL transactions from over a hundred banks and credit unions. This extensive data collection illustrates the evolving consumer preferences during the hectic holiday shopping season.

Key Insights from the 2026 Holiday Forecast

1. Impressive Growth: equipifi projects that BNPL GTV will soar by 75% compared to last year, indicating a significant shift in how consumers are managing holiday spending.
2. Increased Spending: Weekly BNPL volumes during this holiday season are expected to be double the average weekly amounts observed throughout 2026, showcasing heightened consumer confidence in flexible payment options.
3. First-Time Users: Approximately 30% of the users utilizing BNPL will be first-time adopters, underscoring the growing appeal of installment payment methods.

The anticipated demand for BNPL aligns with trends seen in previous holiday seasons. Returning users have already begun to increase their spending, with reports indicating an 8% uptick year over year leading into 2026. Historical data reveals that last year, BNPL usage nearly doubled compared to earlier months, particularly during high-demand events like Cyber Monday, which recorded the highest daily usage for the year.

The Mobile Influence

Mobile devices play a critical role in driving BNPL engagement during holiday shopping. In 2025, a staggering 80% of BNPL sessions captured by the Purchasing Power Index occurred on mobile platforms. Furthermore, 90% of all holiday BNPL plans were accepted via mobile devices, suggesting that consumers are increasingly relying on their financial institutions' apps while in-store or online shopping.

This trend places banks and credit unions at a pivotal advantage, as they can meet consumers where they are—on their smartphones—enhancing the accessibility of flexible payment solutions during the holiday rush. Bryce Deeney, CEO and Founder of equipifi, emphasizes that “when offered by financial institutions, BNPL can meet consumers wherever they shop, and during the holidays that means on their phones.”

Monitoring Trends and Optimizing Programs

Financial institutions equipped with BNPL offerings that appeal to account holders are poised to seize this wave of holiday spending. Deeney advises that engaging with customers before Black Friday can lead to substantial demand capture. Institutions are encouraged to leverage the insights from the Purchasing Power Index to tailor their BNPL offerings based on historical spending patterns and emerging consumer behaviors.

The equipifi Purchasing Power Index quantitatively assesses BNPL usage, categorizing data by purchase types, retailers, and consumer purchasing capabilities. Utilizing this extensive database, which includes over a billion transactions from millions of households, equipifi provides institutions the ability to forecast and strategize effectively for the fast-approaching holiday season.

Conclusion

As we approach the 2026 holiday shopping season, the outlook for BNPL services looks remarkably strong, with equipifi setting an optimistic forecast for both first-time users and returning shoppers. With advanced data insights and a mobile-first approach, banks and credit unions have a significant opportunity to capture a larger share of consumer spending during this peak shopping period. The evolving landscape of BNPL continues to redefine how consumers approach their holiday shopping, making flexible payment options an essential tool for financial institutions aiming to meet modern consumer needs.