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Percent Unveils 2026 Private Credit Outlook

On January 15, 2026, Percent, a leading platform in the private credit marketplace, published its highly anticipated 2026 Private Credit Outlook. This annual report takes a deep dive into the evolving landscape of private credit, with a focus on the trends set to shape the market in the upcoming year.

As we reflect on 2025's volatility, Percent's analysis suggests that the private credit sector is entering a more challenging period where thorough diversification and income-focused alternatives are becoming increasingly vital. Estimates indicate that the private credit market was valued at around $3 trillion at the start of 2025, significantly up from approximately $2 trillion in 2020. Projections indicate growth to nearly $5 trillion by 2029.

“This expansion of private credit is significant, yet the market's tolerance is diminishing,” explained Nelson Chu, Percent's Founder and CEO. He further emphasized that in 2026, capital investment will gravitate towards platforms and managers that exhibit robust structuring and transparency, characterized by regular reporting and heightened operational and risk oversight.

Prath Reddy, President of Percent, added that the forthcoming growth wave will not be defined by hype but by a disciplined approach. Investors are becoming increasingly discerning concerning seniority, collateral specifics, shorter cash flow durations, and real-time performance validation, signaling a shift in investor priorities.

Key Themes for 2026

The 2026 Private Credit Outlook outlines several emerging themes influencing the market dynamics this year:

1. Increased Supply and Negotiation Leverage: As factors like AI evolution and impending maturities shape the future, the private credit deal flow is set to expand. This shift will enhance loan terms and spreads, offering investors broader choices.

2. Containment of Defaults: While 2025 witnessed notable bankruptcies, largely attributed to fraudulent activities, these incidents haven’t prompted a widespread uptick in default rates. This suggests an underlying stability amidst prevalent concerns.

3. Emerging Risks: A widening gap between prime and subprime borrowers is on the horizon. Percent emphasizes the potential rise in delinquencies for lenders heavily engaged with subprime segments, highlighting the need for vigilance in underwriting.

4. AI Infrastructure Financing: The surging need for AI-driven data centers and corresponding power requirements is predicted to instigate substantial new issuances across both public and private debt markets. This demand could concurrently elevate spreads due to increased supply.

5. Systemic Risks: A new risk termed “algorithmic crowding” could emerge if too many market players depend on identical AI frameworks, leading to synchronized decision-making and amplified correlated outcomes during market stress periods.

6. BaaS and Tokenization Evaluation: The report foretells an impending scrutiny phase for various models under increasing regulatory and economic pressures, with capital shifting towards impactful strategies that demonstrate consistent operational metrics.

As we conclude this insightful report, it’s noteworthy that Percent is celebrating a successful year, having surpassed $350 million in Assets Under Management (AUM) by the close of 2025. The company achieved this milestone through an impressive issuance volume of $532.4 million, onboarding over 140 borrower programs and boasting more than 50,000 investor sign-ups. Moreover, continuous growth in asset-based securities accounted for over 84% of their issuance volume, a growing trend expected to persist into 2026.

For full insights, the detailed 2026 Private Credit Outlook report is accessible at Percent's website.

About Percent

Founded in 2018, Percent is transforming the private credit landscape by facilitating efficient access, liquidity, and data for all market players. Through its innovative digital platform, Percent empowers all parties involved in private credit transactions to source, structure, distribute, service, and trade effectively. With billions in transaction volume, it is redefining standards within this historically fragmented industry.

For more information, visit www.percent.com.