#USA #holiday shopping #San Mateo #Rakuten #consumer research

Divided Spending Intentions for Holiday Shopping

As the holiday season approaches, a new survey conducted by Rakuten, one of the premier cash-back shopping platforms, sheds light on the spending habits of U.S. consumers. Research performed by Harris Poll highlights a notable division among shoppers regarding their planned expenditures this year. While 28% report intentions to reduce their holiday spending, an almost equal number (26%) anticipate increasing their budgets. This contrast is particularly evident in households with children, where expectations to spend are nearly double those without children—38% compared to 19%.

Pressure of Financial Strain

Despite the holiday spirit, nearly half of consumers (46%) acknowledge that rising costs across various essential categories—such as food, gas, and utilities—are influencing their shopping decisions. Furthermore, just 37% of individuals express confidence in their financial ability to manage additional holiday expenses and non-essentials. This climate of financial caution has not lessened the desire for celebration, indicating a complex dynamic where consumers are eager to honor the holidays while grappling with practical budget constraints.

Wendy Bergh, Chief Marketing Officer for Rakuten Rewards, commented, "Consumers are navigating a volatile economy and increased financial stress this holiday season. While there is still a strong desire to celebrate and give gifts to loved ones, shoppers are incredibly cautious with where and how they spend. Retailers need to understand that shoppers are balancing their holiday budgets with everyday essentials and monthly payments. They need to be able to deliver a package of incentives that elevates an offer beyond just a 'great deal,' to something that shoppers simply cannot pass up."

Surge in Credit Card Debt

The survey reveals that about 24% of shoppers, across income brackets, expect to incur additional credit card debt to fund their holiday purchases. Interestingly, this trend is more pronounced among households with children, who show a significant propensity to increase their credit card usage compared to child-free households (37% versus 15%). This growing reliance on credit hints at a desperation to maintain traditional holiday celebrations even in the face of economic challenges.

Demand for Incentives

Against a backdrop of financial pressure, shoppers are increasingly in search of value with every dollar spent. About 75% of consumers believe that opportunities to stack incentives—such as cashback, free shipping, and discount coupons—play a crucial role in their purchasing decisions. Notably, 26% of respondents indicated they would refrain from gifting unless stacking deals was possible during checkout.

Accordingly, retailers are responding to this demand through enhanced shopping incentives:

• - 50% plan to offer free shipping and returns
• - 49% prioritize customer loyalty programs
• - 44% increase investments in rewards and cash-back systems

Bergh emphasized, "Consumers want to shop with confidence. Retailers will need to provide stackable rewards and incentives to offer the best, most personalized deals. When shoppers earn cash back on top of discounts, they feel that confidence they need to make a purchase."

Retailer Optimism despite Caution

Interestingly, while consumers display caution, retail confidence remains high with 83% believing they will meet their sales targets in Q4 2025. This optimism is bolstered by impressive performance numbers from the previous year, where 93% of retailers reached their sales goals in Q4 2024. Although many retailers acknowledge consumer concerns about everyday essentials, only a minor fraction (3%) anticipates that customers will completely switch to lower-value brands. Instead, nearly one-third (28%) expect consumers to seek familiar brands at discount retailers, indicating a shift towards value-driven purchasing behaviors.

In conclusion, while economic pressures loom over the upcoming holiday season, both consumers and retailers are adapting to ensure that the spirit of the season is maintained. As Bergh remarked, “The brands that succeed this season will be those that listen closely to shoppers, personalize their incentives, deliver value that truly resonates and build lasting loyalty for the future.”

About Rakuten

Rakuten, established in 1999, is the most rewarding way to shop, offering millions of members cash back on purchases made through their favorite brands. As a leading shopping platform, Rakuten has collaborated with thousands of renowned brands in various sectors, enabling members to save significantly on daily purchases. Since its inception, Rakuten members have garnered over $4.6 billion in cash-back rewards, reinforcing its position as the largest cash-back platform available.

Explore more about Rakuten at Rakuten.com.