#Japan #Tokyo #Tamagotchi #Nintendo #Happinet

2025 Toy Sales Trends: Christmas Forecasts and Retro Resurgence

In a recent report, Happinet Co., Ltd. has shed light on the toy sales trends leading up to August 2025, particularly focusing on the anticipated demand for the Christmas and New Year seasons. This analysis, grounded in distribution data from the past year, reveals interesting insights into consumer behavior and market shifts, especially in the context of the ongoing popularity of retro toys and the impact of new gaming consoles.

Key Highlights of 2025 Toy Sales Trends

1. Summer Sales Surge

The toy market is expected to surge by 107% in August 2025 compared to the previous year. This growth indicates the robustness of the toy industry during the summer months, notably during events like Obon and summer vacations.

2. Resurgence of Heisei Retro Items

Recently, there's been a growing appreciation for 'Heisei Retro' items—those popularized during the 1990s to early 2000s. These nostalgic toys and designs are capturing the attention of younger generations, particularly millennials and Gen Z, who are sharing their fond memories on social media platforms, kicking off a nostalgic trend that feels both classic and fresh.

3. Expanding Inbound Demand

The increase in inbound tourism has had a notable positive effect on toy sales at Narita Airport, with revenues climbing by approximately 141% year-on-year. Over the past two years, the sales of capsule toys alone surged by about 245%, highlighting the attractiveness of Japanese toys for international visitors.

Christmas and Year-End Demand Forecasts

1. Distribution of Christmas Sales

This year's Christmas shopping is expected to mirror last year's trends, spreading out between the third and fourth weeks of December. The peak sales are likely to occur during the weekends leading up to Christmas and the last-minute shoppers in the fourth week.

2. Impact of the Nintendo Switch 2 Release

The upcoming release of the Nintendo Switch 2 is anticipated to influence the toy market significantly. The original Nintendo Switch had a mixed impact during its launch; however, this time, early reports suggest that the new console is already breaking sales records, which may lead to increased foot traffic in toy aisles and a spike in demand for related merchandise.

3. Trends and Popular Products

International IP Expansion: With platforms like Netflix and Disney+ growing in popularity, international intellectual properties (IPs) are gaining traction within the domestic toy market, fostering new releases that resonate with current audiences.

Nintendo Switch 2 Merchandise: Following the success of its predecessor, the release of Nintendo Switch 2 is also expected to boost demand for associated character merchandise, particularly through franchises like Mario and Pokémon, which have historically seen spikes during game launches.

Toy Categories to Watch

Character Toys

Products from popular character franchises such as 'Number One Squadron Go-Ju-Jer' and 'Pokemon' continue to thrive due to the release of new items. In August alone, new products like the "DX Orca Booster 5050" and the "Smart Rotom SHAKE" have amplified sales in their respective categories.

Digital and Movie Merchandise

The recent launch of the 'Tamagotchi Paradise' and collaboration items featuring Sanrio characters remain strong sellers alongside movie-related merchandise, particularly with the recent release of 'Jurassic World: Dominions.'

Trading Cards

Although fluctuating due to market dynamics, trading cards continue to maintain a solid fanbase, showcasing resilience despite occasional dips in demand.

Conclusion

The 2025 toy market is set for a dynamic year, influenced heavily by both nostalgia and new gaming technologies. As we approach the holiday season, manufacturers and retailers must stay vigilant in aligning with consumer preferences—particularly in recognizing and adapting to the resurgence of beloved retro items and the emerging influence of new gaming consoles like the Nintendo Switch 2.
Expectations are high for a robust holiday shopping season, enriched by the nostalgia of the past and the innovations of the present.

Contact and Support

For media inquiries or more detailed data related to toy trends, please contact Happinet Co., Ltd. We are open to providing additional insights and facilitating interviews with our executives.