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February New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

Overview

In February 2026, the automotive market is expected to witness a rebound in new-vehicle sales compared to January, driven by a recovery from winter weather challenges. However, the numbers are projected to fall short of last year's figures, ongoing economic uncertainties still clouding the outlook.

Cox Automotive reports a forecasted annual sales pace of approximately 15.6 million vehicles for February. This presents a modest increase from January’s weather-impacted 14.9 million but a noticeable decline from last February's 16.0 million sales pace. Although the sales volume is anticipated to rise to 1.19 million, this denotes a drop of 3.4% compared to 1.23 million sales recorded in the same month last year, maintaining the same number of selling days.

Sales Performance Details

Despite the forecasted monthly increase, the sales outlook reflects the multifaceted challenges faced by consumers in the automotive market. The anticipated improvement from January's results is tempered by the broader impacts of adverse weather and heightened economic apprehension.

Charlie Chesbrough, the senior economist at Cox Automotive, noted, “The sales pace for new vehicles shifted into a slower gear during Q4 of the previous year, and we expect this trend to persist.” He adds that February's anticipated sales figure, while improved, still embodies the pressures consumers are navigating, particularly with the ongoing volatility regarding vehicle prices and economic stability.

A Closer Look at Vehicle Segments

Examining the breakdown of vehicle categories reveals varied performances:

• - Mid-Size Cars: Expected to sell 56,000 units, showing a minor year-over-year decrease of 4.0%.
• - Compact Cars: Forecasted to reach 90,000, down 7.5% from the previous year.
• - Compact SUVs/Crossovers: Notably, this segment is projected to decline by 9.9%, with expected sales around 200,000.
• - Full-Size Pickup Trucks: With expected sales of 160,000, a slight 1.1% decrease.
• - Mid-Size SUVs/Crossovers: Contrarily, this market segment is expected to see an increase, rising by 6.5% to around 198,000 units.

Overall, the