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Overview of the 2026 State of the US Wine Industry

On January 15, 2026, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) unveiled its 25th annual report on the state of the US wine industry, providing insightful analysis of market trends and anticipated developments for the coming year. This comprehensive document is a go-to resource for anyone invested in the premium wine sector. Notably, the report shows that industry sales for 2025 are estimated to reach approximately 329 million cases, amounting to a total value of around $74.3 billion. These figures indicate a slight decline from the 2024 totals of 335.9 million cases and $75.5 billion, respectively.

The report highlights that the wine market is currently experiencing a multi-year demand correction, primarily affecting low-value wines priced below $12. During 2025, there was a 2.0% decline in sales volume and a 1.6% drop in dollar sales. However, this downward trend marks an improvement compared to the preceding year, reflecting ongoing adjustments within the industry that are becoming evident.

As the premium segment grapples with its first decline in sales growth since 2020, SVB's Peer Group Analysis Database reveals that revenues from premium wineries dropped by 1.2% both in terms of case volume and dollar sales in the first half of 2025. Despite these challenges, analysts believe that the market may see an upturn in 2026, with expectations for the industry to stabilize in 2027-2028 before returning to modest growth rates. Rob McMillan, the founder of SVB’s Wine Division, underscores that wineries achieving success are those that adapt their strategies and redefine their value propositions rather than waiting for an eventual return to previous market conditions.

Key Findings of the Report

Among the various insights presented, the 2026 SVB wine report identifies several key trends affecting the industry:

• - Improvement in Demand: The rate at which demand for wine is declining is expected to improve in 2026, with a gradual rebound anticipated in the following years.
• - Bulk Wine Dynamics: A surplus of high-quality bulk wine is currently facilitating growth within the private label sector, where demand has surged in double digits.
• - Oversupply Challenges: The industry faces structural obstacles due to oversupply, resulting in elevated inventory levels across the supply chain. A genuine recovery in demand at the retail level is crucial for alleviating these challenges.
• - Visitor Trends: Smaller wineries catering to direct-to-consumer markets have observed a drop in tasting room visits, further complicating their sales dynamics.

SVB is set to host a live webinar on January 15 at 9:00 AM PST, where industry experts, including Rob McMillan, will delve deeper into the findings of the annual report and discuss the future state of the wine industry. Those interested can register to gain insights directly from expert panelists, which will also include representatives from renowned wineries and consulting firms.

This year's report not only serves as a reflective roadmap for the challenges faced by the wine industry but also offers invaluable recommendations for wineries looking to thrive in an evolving marketplace. For anyone involved in the wine sector, whether as a producer, retailer, or consumer, the 2026 SVB report is an essential tool for navigating the complexities of today's wine landscape.

With SVB’s extensive experience and deep knowledge of the wine industry, the report comes as a resource brimming with information and strategic insight, reinforcing SVB’s commitment to serving the needs of wineries and vineyards with tailored commercial banking solutions since 1994. In addition to financial services, SVB is renowned for providing unparalleled market intelligence, which continues to be indispensable for growing brands across premium wine regions in California, Oregon, and Washington.