Dell'Oro Group Projects $160 Billion in RAN Revenue Before 6G Implementation

RAN Revenue Stabilization: Dell'Oro Group's Forecast

According to a recent forecast report released by Dell'Oro Group, a well-regarded source for market insights in telecommunications, the global revenues from Radio Access Networks (RAN) are expected to stabilize at a cumulative total of $160 billion during the forecast period from 2025 to 2029. This comes after a challenging phase where the RAN equipment market experienced significant declines, totaling nearly $9 billion across two consecutive years.

Stefan Pongratz, the Vice President of RAN market research at Dell'Oro Group, noted that despite this optimistic projection, it’s important not to get overly excited about a rapid recovery. Various factors, including the asynchronous nature of technological deployments, could cause fluctuations in the market.

Key Insights from the Mobile RAN Forecast

The report highlights several critical aspects regarding the future of RAN and the factors influencing its growth:

1. Flat Revenue Growth: Over the next five years, RAN revenues, not including service fees, are projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1%. This decrease is largely attributed to the fast decline of LTE revenues, which will overshadow ongoing investments in 5G.

2. Impact of New Technologies: Emerging technologies and architectures, such as Open RAN, Cloud RAN, and AI-enhanced RAN, are poised to play vital roles in the market. However, they are currently not expected to contribute significantly to market expansion.

3. Potential for Market Expansion: The stable revenue projection implies that unexpected growth drivers such as Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), private wireless networks, and advancements in public safety communications might hasten market progress beyond initial expectations.

4. Changing Investment Focus: As the industry shifts its investment strategies from improving coverage to enhancing capacity, a noteworthy concern is the slow growth of mobile data traffic. If this trend continues to lag behind projections, there is a risk that capital expenditures relative to revenue could decline even further as network operators enter a maintenance phase following the completion of 5G coverage.

5. 5G-Advanced Spending Plans: Spending on 5G-Advanced technology is slated to follow continued investment in 5G, but it will occur within existing budget constraints without initiating another major capital expenditure cycle.

6. Growth Segments to Watch: Forecasts suggest that certain areas within RAN are set to grow over the next five years. These include 5G New Radio (NR), Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), millimeter wave (mmWave) technology, Open RAN, virtual RAN (vRAN), private wireless setups, small cells, Massive MIMO technology, and AI-driven RAN.

Conclusion

The Dell'Oro Group’s report provides a detailed analysis of the RAN market, categorizing its insights by regions including North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific, China, and the Caribbean-Latin America. It comes complete with extensive tables detailing revenue and unit shipment data across various RAN segments including 5G NR, LTE, and other relevant technologies.

As we advance toward the 6G era, understanding the current RAN landscape and revenue stabilization trends will be crucial for all stakeholders in the telecommunications industry. For those looking to dive deeper into the data, further details can be obtained through Dell'Oro Group’s official channels.

For more information, visit Dell'Oro Group's website or contact them directly at +1.650.622.9400.