#United States #Atlanta #EV sales #Used Vehicles #Manheim Index

Introduction

In September 2026, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index experienced a notable decline, dropping to 205.9. This marks a 0.6% decrease from the same period last year and a 1.1% dip from August. As economic pressures mount, the depreciation of vehicle values accelerated significantly during the third quarter, necessitating a revised year-end valuation forecast. This article explores the contributing factors behind this downward trend and its implications for the used vehicle market.

Economic Pressures and Their Impact

The decline in the Manheim Index is set against a backdrop of rising fuel prices, increased interest rates, and broader economic instability. Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive's chief economist, noted that September typically marks a weaker season for wholesale valuations, but this year has seen steeper depreciation than usual. Notably, the absence of an Atlantic hurricane during September, which traditionally boosts demand post-storm, likely exacerbated these trends.

Higher diesel prices, reaching record highs, have had a pronounced impact on the wholesale market. Although diesel vehicles make up only 3% of wholesale inventory, their values have been particularly affected due to dilated days’ supply, which rose by 27% year-over-year. Conversely, the availability of electric vehicles (EVs) has continued to increase, reflecting a shift in market dynamics towards more fuel-efficient models.

Fuel Costs and Interest Rates Stifle Wholesale Values

After a better-than-expected appreciation in the first half of 2026, wholesale values began to decline in Q3. The combination of high fuel prices and increasing interest rates created significant hurdles for both buyers and sellers in the used vehicle market. Larger vehicles, such as pickups and SUVs, felt a greater impact as their demand diminished, while older, more affordable models saw a comparatively mild depreciation due to sustained interest.

Rise of Electric Vehicles in the Market

Despite overall declines, the market for used EVs is thriving. EV sales at Manheim surged by 22% from the prior quarter and an impressive 45% year-over-year. This trend indicates a growing acceptance of electric cars, which now constitute 4.9% of all transactions at Manheim—a substantial rise from 3.9% in the previous quarter.

As more vehicles transition from lease to resale, expectations are high for further growth in off-lease EV volumes, projected to increase from 10% to potentially 19% by mid-2027. This bolstered off-lease supply arrives alongside an explosion in retail EV sales, which hit an all-time high of approximately 124,000 units in Q3.

Adjusted Forecasts for 2026

Cox Automotive has revised several segments of its 2026 used-vehicle market outlook, with an expected total of 38.5 million used vehicles sold, showing a slight improvement from earlier forecasts. Notably, certified pre-owned vehicle sales projections have remained constant at 2.6 million units, indicating a slight decline year-over-year.

The total wholesale volume is anticipated to reach around 11.8 million units, with off-lease and rental volumes impacting the overall figures positively. However, concerns remain due to anticipated declines in dealer units, affecting broader wholesale growth, which is expected to be more moderate moving into 2027.

Looking Forward

As we move into the fourth quarter of 2026, several key factors are influencing market sentiment. An aging vehicle fleet, recovering fleet demand, and potential policy shifts post-midterm elections could play critical roles in determining future trends. The market forecast indicates the need for vigilance with respect to rising interest rates and the emotional impact of global conflicts on consumer behaviors.

In conclusion, while the used vehicle market faces considerable challenges stemming from economic pressures, there is also substantial potential for growth, particularly within the EV sector. The dynamics of market recovery will rely heavily on how external pressures evolve and how effectively industry stakeholders can adapt to meet changing consumer needs.

About Cox Automotive

Cox Automotive is recognized as the largest global automotive services and technology provider. Leveraging extensive datasets and insights from billions of online interactions, Cox Automotive is uniquely positioned to offer tailored solutions across the automotive ecosystem. With a workforce exceeding 29,000 across four continents, the company boasts a suite of leading brands, including Manheim, Autotrader, and Kelley Blue Book.

For more information on market insights and trends, visit Cox Automotive's official site.