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A Significant Transformation in Energy Supply

A new climate modeling innovation is reshaping the energy landscape. Developed by physicist and solar industry expert Andrew Birch, the S-Curve model predicts that by 2035, over half of the global energy demand will be supplied by solar energy. This projection marks a pivotal transition in energy sources, challenging decades of conventional energy forecasts.

Andrew Birch, a pioneer in the solar field, argues that the traditional metrics used to estimate solar energy's potential have been flawed. He asserts that the existing measures, which primarily focus on primary energy, are appropriate solely for fossil fuels; this perspective neglects that a significant portion of fossil fuel energy is wasted through combustion. The S-Curve encourages a reevaluation, suggesting instead that delivered energy should be the new standard for energy assessments.

Birch elaborates that the transition to solar power is not just feasible but inevitable if current trends continue. He believes that in the next decade, solar could displace 50% of coal, oil, and gas energy supplies. This prediction serves as a wake-up call for investors still backing fossil fuels. Birch has a track record of founding leading solar enterprises over the last 20 years and remains optimistic about solar's trajectory.

The S-Curve model outlines that while the world relies on solar power, the electric economy will demand 60% less energy than prior estimates. Furthermore, Birch declares that the cost of solar technology will reduce annually by 10% while its growth rate will average 25%. As a result, solar energy is anticipated to outpace nuclear energy in the near future and surpass oil by 2031.

Birch collaborates actively with Professor Andrew Crossland at Durham University, focusing on the benefits solar electrification could provide across global energy markets. According to Professor Crossland, the expanding solar presence will significantly impact the overall energy mix, making electricity more affordable, resilient, and environmentally friendly. They jointly urge governments to prioritize solar energy and decentralized solutions to enhance the future energy grid.

The implications of this modeling suggest not only an energy transition but also an economic one. Birch emphasizes that a clean energy transition could save the global economy a staggering $9 trillion annually by 2035. He believes that removing subsidies and trade barriers associated with fossil fuels will further accelerate this transition.

Overall, the findings from Birch's S-Curve modeling paint an optimistic picture for solar power's role in the future energy landscape. By embracing these trends and opportunities, we stand at the brink of an energy revolution that positions solar energy at its helm—transforming how we power our lives sustainably and economically through innovation.

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