#United States #New York #Texas Roadhouse #Chili's #Raising Cane's

Consumer Edge's 2026 Restaurant Outlook

On December 1, 2025, Consumer Edge (CE) released its much-anticipated 2026 Restaurant Outlook, painting a picture of the evolving dining landscape in the United States. The report reveals steadfast restaurant spending throughout 2025, revealing a significant shift in consumer preferences as they gravitate towards affordability, quality, and consistency.

As inflation impacts consumer behavior, diners now approach their eating out decisions with more intention. CE's transaction data indicates that restaurant brands like Chili's, Texas Roadhouse, and Raising Cane's are carving out larger portions of market share. This shift represents a movement away from mere hype and towards value-driven decisions. According to Michael Gunther, the Vice President and Head of Insights at Consumer Edge, “For restaurant brands, value in 2026 needs to go beyond discounts; they must foster consumer trust through fair pricing and consistent experiences.”

Key Findings from the 2026 Restaurant Outlook

Value Drives Consumer Choices

The report emphasizes that diners across various income levels are becoming increasingly deliberate about their dining choices. Efforts to manage expenses have led consumers to focus more on grocery spending. This shift has created a somewhat polarized dining environment, where individuals either seek affordable options or upscale experiences that prioritize ambiance and service.

Casual Dining Thrives

During the third quarter of 2025, casual dining chains saw considerable success, with brands like Chili's and Texas Roadhouse seeing an uptick in patrons. Families and middle-income consumers opted for these affordable sit-down restaurants, making them a favorable choice. Red Lobster also experienced a rebound as it launched new value offerings, emphasizing that the casual dining sector has potential for further growth, especially in 2026, where reliable meals and service without luxury pricing will take precedence.

Growth in the Chicken Segment

The report notes a significant trend towards chicken restaurants, which have expanded by an impressive 50% between 2019 and 2020. Key players such as Raising Cane's have nearly doubled their market share to 11%, while Chick-fil-A dominates with about 50% of the market. This segment's resilience lies in its operational efficiency and wide appeal across demographics, suggesting that 2026 may continue this growth trajectory.

Fast-Casual Brands Face Challenges

On the other hand, some fast-casual brands like Chipotle and Panera have faced difficulties, with slower growth attributed to increased prices that deterred many consumers. Nonetheless, Panda Express has seen success through innovative menu offerings and enhanced digital engagement. This mixed performance indicates a discerning consumer base that favors brands offering a balanced combination of novelty and value.

Regional Favorites on the Rise

Consumer preferences also skews towards local establishments, with regional favorites performing strongly in various areas. In the Southern U.S., places like Freebirds World Burrito and Biscuitville have garnered rapid growth, reflecting a desire for comfort dining. Meanwhile, Springbone Kitchen and Blank Street Coffee in the Northeast gained traction with their healthier, convenient menus, showcasing the importance of local identity in consumer dining choices.

The 2026 Restaurant Outlook paints an optimistic yet realistic picture of the dining industry, reflecting both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Brands evaluating their strategies will need to recognize that value is no longer merely about discounting prices but about delivering consistent quality and satisfaction at every level of service.

As dining evolves in the face of economic pressures, the insights provided by Consumer Edge offer a crucial lens through which restaurant operators can adapt and thrive in a market that is increasingly driven by consumer values and expectations.