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Analysis of the October Employment Trends Index

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) reported a slight decrease to 108.36 in October, down by 0.1% from a prior revised figure of 108.43 in September. However, when looking at the broader picture, the ETI has risen by 2.4% compared to the same month last year. This index serves as a crucial indicator for predicting future payroll employment, implying that an increase can suggest potential job growth in the months ahead while a downturn may indicate contraction.

Job Market Update

In October, nonfarm payrolls reported the addition of 165,000 new jobs, alongside a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. Although the month-to-month fluctuation in the ETI appears modest, the yearly improvement from 1.9% in September 2026 and a substantial turnaround from -1.0% in October 2025 showcases a teasing upward trend in employment indicators.

Conrad Qi, an Economic Data Scientist Associate at The Conference Board, shares insights into these changes, noting a rising demand for employees. Specifically, three of the ETI’s eight components positively impacted the index this month. The percentage of firms struggling to fill open positions increased from 32% to 36%, highlighting the greater labor demand within small businesses. Moreover, the temporary help industry saw an uptick of 18,600 hires in October, signaling stronger labor market dynamics.

Contributing Factors to the ETI

Conversely, four components negatively influenced the index. The ratio of involuntarily part-time workers rose from 16.5% to 17.6%, potentially reflecting a growing concern over job security. Other detrimental factors included a drop in real manufacturing and trade sales by approximately 0.3%, an estimated 73,000 reduction in job openings down to 7.45 million, and a slight 0.1% decrease in industrial production.

Notably, the index's measure concerning respondents who find jobs difficult to obtain remained unchanged, indicating stability in this belief.

What the ETI Indicates for the Future

The Employment Trends Index consists of eight leading indicators that include:

• - The percentage of respondents indicating they find “jobs hard to get” derived from The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®.
• - Initial claims for unemployment insurance, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor.
• - The percentage of firms unable to fill positions, gathered by the National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation.
• - The number of employees hired within the temporary-help sector, as provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• - The ratio of involuntary part-time to all part-time workers, as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• - Job openings measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• - Industrial production rates from the Federal Reserve Board.
• - Real manufacturing and trade sales according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The report indicates monthly ETI updates every second Monday following the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. This ongoing analysis underscores the fluidity and responsiveness of the job market to economic conditions, serving as a vital resource for businesses, policymakers, and job seekers alike.

Conclusion

Overall, despite the minimal monthly decline observed in the Employment Trends Index for October, the underlying yearly growth signals an encouraging outlook for employment trends. As labor demands shift and evolve, monitoring these indicators will be essential for understanding future labor market conditions.