Insights from the MONEX Individual Investor Survey: March 2026 Report

Overview
Monex Securities conducted a survey from February 27 to March 3, 2026, gathering insights from 1,846 individual investors holding accounts with the firm. This regular survey investigates the market outlook and NISA usage of investors, alongside special topics like investment trends in domestic and international bonds amidst rising interest rates and current market risks.

Key Highlights
1. Investment Trends During Rising Interest Rates:
- More than half of individual investors are considering domestic bonds as an investment option.
- The investment choices are diversifying in response to the rising interest rate environment.
2. Outlook for Global Stock Markets:
- Expectations for the Japanese stock market remain stable.
- There’s a notable increase in positive sentiment towards Chinese stocks compared to previous surveys.
- Geopolitical risks emerged as the most significant factor affecting market conditions.
3. Notable Themes:
- When predicting the Nikkei Average, the most common forecast is between 60,000 and 63,000 yen, reflecting a robust positive expectation.
- Both Japan and the US identified the “Energy” sector as the predominant growth area, while the “Information Technology” sector has seen a significant decline.
- Over 40% of investors foresee a stronger dollar in the next three months.

A. Investment Trends in Bonds amid Rising Interest Rates

During this survey, Monex evaluated how rising interest rates, notably the Bank of Japan's decision to increase the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% at the end of 2025, have affected investor behavior.

- Investment behavior changes: Approximately 30% of respondents reported altering their investing strategies due to rising interest rates. The most common adjustments included an increased focus on high-dividend stocks (40.08% of respondents) and an expansion of investments in bonds (32.05%) and bank/financial stocks (31.12%).
- Nearly 50% of participants are now considering domestic bonds, with 35.42% already owning them. However, a significant portion still does not view foreign bonds as viable investment options, with over 51% of respondents indicating they wouldn’t consider foreign bonds even if rates were to rise further.
- The rising favorability of domestic bonds seems to indicate a growing acceptance of bonds within individual portfolios.

B. NISA Account Usage

The survey offered insights into the newly launched NISA system, which commenced in 2024.

- The majority of investors utilizing the growth investment framework expressed a long-term holding strategy, with 39.09% indicating plans to hold onto investments for 1-10 years and 36.36% for over 10 years.
- Notably, 70% of respondents reported no changes to their investment amounts, and among those who increased their contributions, nearly half cited inflation as a motivator.

C. Global Stock Market Outlook

The survey assessed investor expectations for the Japanese, US, and Chinese stock markets in the coming three months.

- The outlook for US stocks dropped significantly, while Chinese stocks saw a substantial increase in positive investor sentiment.
- Regarding risks, geopolitical concerns were deemed the most significant, particularly following increasing tensions in the Middle East, with significant market fluctuations observed shortly thereafter.

D. Sector Analysis in Japan and the US

In evaluating sector-based expectations:

- Japanese investors indicated that sectors like Energy Resources and Construction show the most promise in upcoming months, while the IT sector has notably declined.
- Contrasting with Japan, the US sector DI results showed that the Energy sector remains robust, whereas the Real Estate sector faced challenges.

E. Currency Market Analysis

In the realm of currency expectations, 42% of individual investors anticipate a weaker yen against the dollar moving forward. This represents a significant shift toward expecting a depreciation of the yen, with only 24% believing it would strengthen.

Conclusion
Through this comprehensive survey, valuable trends and expectations within the individual investor community in Japan have been highlighted. The results show a cautious yet optimistic sentiment amidst a complex interplay of interest rates, geopolitical risks, and sector rotations in the market. Investors appear to be adapting their strategies, primarily focusing on long-term investments and risk diversification through various asset classes.