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Analyzing the Evolving Landscape for BFCM 2025

As the 2025 Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) approaches, insights from Triple Whale, a platform trusted by over 45,000 retail and e-commerce brands, suggest a pivotal transformation in consumer behavior and advertising effectiveness. With a deep dive into $55 billion worth of annual transaction data, the upcoming season is expected to unveil significant shifts that brands must adapt to in order to thrive amidst changing market dynamics.

Consumer Spending Patterns

Data indicates that consumers are entering the holiday season with a more cautious mindset. The trend shows a clear move towards smaller shopping baskets, as shoppers prioritize selective, deal-searching behavior particularly in discretionary categories. This evolution hints at a paradigm shift where brands might be forced to rethink strategies, aiming for profitability over sheer growth. The report elucidates that brands can no longer rely on spontaneous last-minute campaigns, as these will likely not yield the desired financial outcomes any longer.

Rising Advertising Costs

Simultaneously, rising advertising costs are prominent, with projections estimating a total advertisement spending roundabout $400-$450 million, reflecting an increase of between 28% and 35% year-over-year. Brand managers should brace for higher cost per acquisition (CPA) and cost per mille (CPM) during peak weeks of the season. The challenge will compound as the return on investment from paid media continues to dwindle, leading to higher competition for visibility against a backdrop of declines in performance efficiency.

Retention Over Acquisition

Illustrating a strategic redirection, brands are beginning to prioritize retaining existing consumers over the costly pursuit of attracting new customers. The anticipated decrease in new customer revenue could dip from approximately 57% to 52%, establishing a new normal that underscores the importance of lifetime value. In today's landscape, acquiring new customers is becoming an expensive endeavor, which compels brands to maneuver towards maintaining and maximizing the value of their existing customer base.

Key Trends in Media Performance

Analyzing the first half of 2025, distinct trends emerge among major advertising platforms. While Meta retains its dominance, brands report receiving diminishing returns on ad expenditures. Conversely, Google has outlined an uptick in spending, clicks, and impressions, yet this comes alongside a noticeable decline in efficiency, making it a challenging platform for brands looking to optimize their marketing dollars. Encouragingly, TikTok emerges as an unexpected outperformer, demonstrating an improved efficiency with a +5.9% return on ad spend (ROAS) while successfully lowering CPM by 8.78%. This trend suggests unique opportunities for brands willing to explore non-traditional advertising avenues.

Strategies for Success

In light of these developments, Triple Whale delineates six critical steps for brands to succeed in the peak season:

• - Diversify media channels, embracing platforms that may have previously been overlooked.
• - Optimize for customer lifetime value, shifting focus from immediate returns to strategies that enhance long-term profitability.
• - Utilize first-party data, enhancing targeting precision while respecting data privacy regulations.
• - Start campaigns early, avoiding reliance on last-minute pushes that may not yield substantial results.
• - Leverage loyalty programs, building emotional connections with customers to enhance retention rates.
• - Think strategically about spending, directing funds toward channels that maintain efficiency amidst rising costs.

The full report, titled "The Ultimate BFCM 2025 Prep Guide for Ecommerce Brands," is available for download at Triple Whale's website.

About Triple Whale

At its core, Triple Whale is designed for making swift, data-informed decisions across brands. Utilizing AI technology layered on a dedicated data warehouse, it offers actionable insights for enhancing acquisition, retention, conversion, and overall operational efficiency. High-profile brands, including OUAI, Pressed Juicery, and True Classic, utilize the platform to navigate the complexities of data and scale with confidence, emphasizing the value of precision-driven strategies in this rapidly transitioning market landscape.