Driving eSIM Adoption: Forecast of 633 Million Devices by 2026

The eSIM Revolution: A Look Ahead to 2026

The adoption of eSIM technology is rapidly transforming both consumer electronics and the Internet of Things (IoT) landscapes. A recent forecast from ABI Research highlights that shipments of eSIM-enabled devices are expected to exceed 633 million by 2026. This remarkable growth is largely driven by the soaring adoption of eSIM-equipped smartphones in countries like China, alongside advancements in the IoT market.

The Current State of the eSIM Market

In 2025, it is projected that 403 million consumer devices and 140 million IoT devices will ship globally, illustrating a robust upward trend in eSIM uptake. This anticipated surge follows a difficult period for the smartphone market, which experienced declines in 2022 and 2023 before enjoying a significant rebound in 2024 and 2025. With smartphone manufacturers increasingly adopting eSIM technology, these devices are becoming central to the eSIM growth narrative.

Georgia Cooke, a research analyst at ABI Research, noted that smartphones alone accounted for 66% of total eSIM shipments in 2024, increasing to 74% by 2025. Despite challenges in the IoT market due to delays surrounding SGP.32 ratification, the smartphone segment demonstrates a clear path toward full saturation, with over 70% of existing smartphones still lacking eSIM support.

China’s Role in the eSIM Surge

A significant driver of this growth will be the liberalization of eSIM technology in China. A pilot program initiated by China Unicom is set to allow eSIM use in domestic smartphones, unlocking substantial market potential. This market shift is expected to position the Asia-Pacific region as the fastest-growing market for eSIM-enabled smartphones, boasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.8% from 2025 to 2030.

In contrast, North America and Western Europe are projected to experience more moderate growth rates of 6.2% and 9.8%, respectively. This indicates a shift in leadership as early adoption gives way to gradual expansion within these regions.

Opportunities Beyond Smartphones

For companies beyond traditional smartphone manufacturers, the eSIM market presents a fertile ground for innovation. MVNOs, service providers, and orchestrators focused on eSIM deployment are finding ample opportunity, particularly in the United States. Notably, Apple's move to offer its iPhones exclusively as eSIM-only devices exemplifies a strategic shift that may catalyze broader adoption among peers and expansion into Western Europe and beyond.

With projections indicating over 1 billion consumer profile downloads by 2029, the potential for infrastructure providers and service vendors in this sector is considerable. As the eSIM market matures, the scope of opportunities is diversifying, paving the way for niche services and offerings.

Conclusion: A Preemptive Hub for eSIM Innovation

The pending transformations in the eSIM market by the end of 2025 and throughout 2026 signal a pivotal moment for stakeholders involved. Factors like the uptick in Chinese adoption, the mainstreaming of eSIM-only products, and incremental advancements in the IoT market are poised to sustain momentum and growth.

The ABI Research report on 'eSIM in the Consumer and IoT Markets' underscores the fast-evolving landscape. With adaptable strategies and insightful alignment to market trends, vendors can effectively harness emerging opportunities in the swiftly developing eSIM domain.