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CEO and Investor Confidence Heading into 2026

As 2025 draws to a close, optimism prevails among CEOs and investors for the upcoming year. A recent survey by Teneo reveals that 73% of CEOs and 82% of investors expect the global economy to improve in 2026. This confidence is juxtaposed with rising concerns regarding global trade, geopolitical uncertainties, and the rapid pace of technological disruption.

High Expectations Balanced by Caution

Despite a slight dip in confidence among large-cap CEOs, who reported a 20% decrease in optimistic projections year-over-year, mid-cap executives remain overwhelmingly positive. The disparity in confidence levels highlights the evolving landscape of global business, where larger firms face increasing scrutiny and challenges. Nonetheless, 78% of CEOs forecast a surge in merger and acquisition activity in the forthcoming year, signaling a robust appetite for investment amid caution.

Paul Keary, CEO of Teneo, remarked, "Following the surge in CEO and investor confidence post-U.S. elections, we see sustained optimism for 2026, with most anticipating a short-term boost in hiring and MA activities. The U.S. continues to be the world’s most attractive market for investments, bolstered by conducive policies aimed at promoting technological growth and regulatory simplicity."

Accelerating AI Investments and ROI Expectations

A significant theme emerging from the survey is the growing emphasis on AI investments. 68% of CEOs plan to ramp up their AI spending, while investors express a heightened urgency for returns on these investments. Interestingly, 53% of investors anticipate achieving ROI within six months, whereas only 16% of large-cap CEOs believe they can meet this expectation.

The pressure for quick returns highlights a growing tension between the swift pace of technological advancements and the realities of the investment landscape. Ursula Burns, Teneo’s Chairwoman, noted, "The narrative around AI investments is shifting from one of potential to urgency, as companies strive to realize tangible benefits shortly after investment."

Workforce Transformation Through AI

The anticipated continued ramp-up in AI spending is expected to drive hiring across various levels in organizations. 67% of CEOs predict an increase in entry-level positions, while 58% foresee adding senior leadership roles. Companies are not merely adapting; they are actively reshaping their workforce to harness AI capabilities and expedite their ROI journey.

This reshaping presents both opportunity and lengthened timelines in hiring practices, marking a shift towards prioritizing AI skills amid corporate restructuring.

The Role of Geopolitics and Globalization

As we look towards 2026, concerns around globalization and geopolitical shifts remain prevalent. 60% of CEOs and 57% of investors agree that deglobalization is set to accelerate. CEOs increasingly view India as rising in strategic importance, anticipating that it will potentially surpass China in the next decade. This shift signals not only a changing economic landscape but also a reevaluation of how global businesses will position themselves strategically in a landscape dominated by rapid changes.

China's longstanding manufacturing strength and technological advances continue to underscore its importance in global markets. However, as geopolitical tensions rise, both CEOs and investors are grappling with how these events will influence their operations moving forward.

Conclusion: Looking Ahead to 2026

Teneo’s Vision 2026 CEO and Investor Outlook Survey brings valuable insights into the current sentiment among leaders in the global business environment. The survey's findings underscore the complexities of navigating a competitive landscape marked by technological disruption and geopolitical uncertainties. As companies prepare for the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead, it is clear that adaptability, innovation, and a strong focus on talent development will be essential for success in 2026 and beyond.

For further details and to access the full survey results, visit teneo.com/Vision2026.