#United States #Atlanta #Cox Automotive #EV sales #vehicle sales

Market Update: New-Vehicle Sales Forecast for November 2024

Cox Automotive's latest forecast indicates a steady performance for new-vehicle sales in November, as the market holds at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million units. This marks a substantial increase from last November's rate of 15.5 million. While the expected sales volume for this month is projected at 1.32 million, this reflects a minor decline of 1.3% from October's figures but represents a stronger 6.6% boost compared to the same month last year.

The analysis suggests that the total number of selling days plays a crucial role in the monthly sales figures; November features 26 selling days, compared to 27 in October and 25 in November 2023. This adjustment in the sales calendar impacts overall performance, leading to these variances in sales reports.

Factors Influencing Sales Performance

According to Charlie Chesbrough, a senior economist with Cox Automotive, recent political developments, particularly the conclusion of the U.S. election cycle, may provide a boost to consumer confidence. This increase in consumer sentiment is anticipated to translate into a greater willingness to purchase new vehicles. Furthermore, improving vehicle affordability, driven by rising sales incentives and decreasing auto loan rates, is likely to support a healthier vehicle sales market moving forward.

With new-vehicle inventory now exceeding 3 million units for the first time since the pandemic, this rise in inventory by over 677,000 units from last year contributes significantly to increasing sales incentives. The average transaction price of new vehicles saw incentives rise to 7.7% in October, marking the highest level since April 2021.

Electric Vehicle Sales Surge Expected

In light of upcoming changes in administration, significant interest surrounds the fate of federal tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs). Chesbrough notes that as customers strive to take advantage of potential discounts that could expire in 2025, heightened sales of EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are expected, especially in November and December.

Analysts suggest that proactive buying behavior fueled by concerns over diminishing incentives will stimulate the market for these vehicles, emphasizing the importance of ongoing tax structures in this emerging segment.

Segment Analysis for November 2024

The projections for vehicle sales segments are as follows:

• - Mid-Size Car: 75,000 units (10.8% YOY increase)
• - Compact Car: 95,000 units (15.5% YOY increase)
• - Full-Size Pickup Truck: 185,000 units (7.4% YOY increase)
• - Mid-Size SUV/Crossover: 195,000 units (1.6% YOY increase)
• - Compact SUV/Crossover: 230,000 units (1.6% YOY increase)
• - Overall Segments: 540,000 units from other categories (8.5% YOY increase)
• - Total Sales: 1,320,000 units (6.6% YOY increase)

Overall, while there is a slight month-over-month decrease, the year-over-year increase across nearly all segments suggests a positive market trend heading into the end of 2024.

Conclusion

As the industry anticipates a stronger finish to 2024, fueled by both improving consumer sentiment and robust inventory levels, the potential for significant growth in the EV sector remains high. Cox Automotive continues to provide insightful predictions regarding market movements, contributing to a better understanding of the automotive landscape amid changing economic conditions. For more updates on Cox Automotive's insights and forecasts, visit their official website or follow them on social media.