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Employment Trends Index Declines in December

The latest data from the Conference Board has revealed a noticeable decline in the Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) for December, with the figure settling at 104.27, a decrease from the previously revised 104.64 in November. This index serves as a key composite indicator for payroll employment, suggesting that fluctuations in its value can hint at future trends in employment growth or contraction.

According to Mitchell Barnes, an economist at The Conference Board, the downward trend in the ETI signals a decrease in labor market confidence, particularly concerning hiring and job-finding prospects. This sentiment is further underscored by a rise in the percentage of consumers who perceive jobs as difficult to secure, which increased to 20.8% in December—marking the highest level since early 2021. Additionally, 33% of small businesses reported challenges in filling open positions, a statistic that mirrors the post-pandemic low point reached in July.

The labor market's state showed little change as 2025 came to a close, characterized by a consistent low-hire, low-fire dynamic. While this scenario allowed a majority of Americans to maintain their employment status, it also suggested that weaker payroll employment gains might lie ahead. Initial claims for unemployment insurance saw a slight uptick in December, although this came after a streak of declines in the preceding months of October and November. Moreover, job openings fell by 303,000 in November, hitting the lowest levels observed since 2020.

Despite steady real manufacturing and trade sales along with stable industrial production during late 2025, indicators from manufacturing activity surveys showed a continued contraction within the goods-producing sectors.

The ETI's decline in December pivoted on negative contributions from six of its eight components, including the percentage of respondents reporting difficulty in finding jobs, initial unemployment claims, temporary-help industry hires, the ratio of involuntary part-time employment, as well as real manufacturing and trade sales. The only bright spot was job openings, which contributed positively, while the percentage of firms unable to fill positions remained unchanged.

The eight leading indicators that comprise the ETI include:
1. Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find 'Jobs Hard to Get' (from the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
2. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (from the U.S. Department of Labor)
3. Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (from the National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
4. Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
5. Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time Workers to All Part-time Workers (data from the BLS)
6. Job Openings (from the BLS)
7. Industrial Production (from the Federal Reserve Board)
8. Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

This data highlights ongoing challenges within the labor market as the economy begins to rebound from the impacts of the pandemic. Moving forward, stakeholders will need to monitor these employment trends closely as they provide key insights into the overall health of the labor market. The Conference Board publishes the ETI monthly, typically on the Monday following the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. For more detailed technical notes about this series, visit the Conference Board's website.

About The Conference Board

Founded in 1916, The Conference Board is a non-profit, member-driven organization devoted to delivering trusted insights for anticipating future trends. Their analyses and reports are invaluable resources for various stakeholders looking to navigate complex economic landscapes.