Improved Economic Confidence in Q3 Amid Business Spending Retransformation

In the latter part of 2026, a modest shift in economic sentiment has emerged among business executives, showcasing an upward trend in confidence regarding both the United States and global economies. This development follows a period of uncertainty and economic challenges that included inflation, rising costs, and geopolitical tensions. According to the latest Q3 Economic Outlook Survey conducted by the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (AICPA) and CIMA, while executive optimism has seen improvement, businesses have become conservative in their spending and expansion plans, prioritizing balance between growth and risk management.

During the third quarter, the optimism concerning the U.S. economy climbed from 32% in the previous quarter to 36%, while confidence in the global economy experienced a similar increase from 19% to 24%. Interestingly, confidence in the executives' specific organizations remained stable at 48%—a slight dip from the previous quarter's 49%. This reflection of confidence indicates a collective grudging acknowledgment that, whilst the outlook has improved, substantial caution remains central to business strategies.

The survey, which aggregates insights from a diverse group of executives including chief financial officers and chief executive officers, uncovers a slight decline in the number of organizations planning to expand within the next year, decreasing from 54% in Q2 to 49% in Q3. Simultaneously, organizations are curtailing expected spending on pivotal areas such as information technology investments and employee development. This conservative financial approach suggests enterprises are not only looking to safeguard their current assets but are also grappling with the looming specter of inflation.

Tom Hood, an executive vice president of business engagement and growth at AICPA, remarked on the survey's findings, stating, "The results reflect a business community that remains resilient despite ongoing economic headwinds. Confidence improved this quarter, but organizations continue to take a disciplined approach to investment and growth as they monitor inflation, costs, and broader market conditions."

Among the notable concerns was inflation; roughly 80% of respondents identified it as a greater risk than deflation—a sentiment underpinned by soaring labor, materials, and energy costs, alongside fluctuating interest rates. Political leadership and availability of skilled labor have also emerged as significant challenges. Moreover, with the increasing digitization of businesses, cybersecurity and regulatory compliance have climbed in concern levels among executives.

Despite these challenges, there is a silver lining with hiring sentiment exhibiting positive improvements. The proportion of executives indicating a shortage of staff increased from 28% to 33% across the quarter. This positive shift suggests that firms are gradually transitioning towards expansion, with about 53% of respondents affirming they have an appropriate number of employees. Hood noted, "This hiring data provides one of the clearest signs of resilience in this quarter’s survey. While talent challenges persist, more organizations are moving ahead with hiring plans, suggesting continued confidence in underlying business demand."

Financial expectations show a slight uptrend as well—projected revenue growth ticked up from 2.6% in Q2 to 3.1% in Q3, and anticipated profit growth increased from 1.1% to 1.5%. Interestingly, this rise in expectations has not translated into a willingness to increase investment significantly, revealing an industry-wide trend in continuing financial discipline.

Concerns about a potential recession have moderated slightly with 46% of executives believing the U.S. economy is either in a recession or will fall into one before the close of 2026, a decrease from 51% in the previous quarter. Nevertheless, a majority remain uncertain about the recession's probability, underscoring the cautious and fluctuating nature of business sentiments in the current economic landscape.

The AICPA and CIMA survey serves as a forward-looking indicator of business expectations and hiring trends for the coming year while contrasting with the retrospective data published by the U.S. Department of Labor.

The survey, conducted between August 4 and 25, 2026, attracted responses from 206 qualified professionals in leadership roles across various sectors. The feedback not only highlights prevailing economic conditions but also reflects the attitudes of those making pivotal decisions in the business realm. As the AICPA and CIMA alliance continues to advocate for sustainability and accountability, the results of this survey reiterate the critical balance companies must achieve between optimism and caution in an unpredictable economic environment.