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Insights on Japan's Employment Outlook for Q4 2025

In a recent employment forecast survey conducted by ManpowerGroup, one of the leading human resources firms, findings indicate that about 60% of companies in Japan plan to keep their employment levels consistent with the previous quarter's data in Q4 2025. The survey assessed hiring intentions for the last quarter of the fiscal year, specifically from October to December 2025, and is conducted quarterly across 42 countries. This latest survey drew responses from 1,050 companies in major Japanese cities, including Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya.

The adjusted net employment outlook stands at +12%, reflecting a slight decrease of 3 percentage points from the prior quarter and a marginal decline of 1 percentage point compared to the same period last year. This net employment outlook is derived from businesses indicating their hiring intentions—those planning to expand their workforce versus those looking to cut back.

Analysis of the Survey Results

The straight calculations show that 24% of companies plan to increase headcount, while only 11% forecast reductions. This results in a net employment metric that, when seasonally adjusted, yields the reported +12%. A notable consideration is that this is based on data that has been systematically seasonally adjusted beginning from the third quarter of 2006 in Japan.

Across 42 participating countries, the global average shows an optimistic net employment outlook of +23%. However, Japan’s results illustrate a more cautious perspective, where employers appear hesitant amid fluctuating economic policies. Survey segments highlight an uptick in the percentage of companies indicating no significant changes in their hiring strategies—from 39% in the previous quarter to 62% this time.

This shift reveals a trend where organizations choose to adopt a wait-and-see attitude rather than take decisive action in recruiting, likely influenced by recent policy revisions, including varying tax duties. A noticeable contrast is drawn with hiring intentions in China, where companies exhibit a stronger recruitment drive, potentially due to temporary tariff reprieves that have allowed organizations to proceed without immediate tax burdens.

Sector and Size Insights

The employment forecast also ventured into sector-specific analysis, revealing that all nine assessed industries, such as healthcare, IT, finance, and telecommunications, expect to increase their workforce. Particularly, the telecommunications sector shows significant vitality with a promising net employment outlook of +35%.

Conversely, when categorizing companies by size, five out of six organizational categories project an upward trajectory in employment forecasts, except for those with under ten employees. The outperforming group consists of businesses with 1,000 to 4,999 staff members, maintaining a neutral forecast while serving as the most optimistic segment with a net outlook of +24%.

Conclusion

The data from this survey convey a clear narrative amid an uncertain global landscape. Although many regions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, have demonstrated stability, Japan presents a more reserved approach following its notable policy fluctuations. Insights gleaned from this survey encapsulate the essence of hiring intentions in a time of heightened economic unpredictability. Businesses in Japan are evidently prioritizing cautious planning over aggressive expansion, compelled to gauge future market trends before finalizing hiring decisions.

In summation, while there is some bolstering of hiring sentiments in China driven by favorable policy reform, Japan's companies are more cautious, revealing the delicate balance between global economic health and national employment strategies. Companies can glean from this scenario the importance of aligning employment initiatives with both internal and external economic factors.

About ManpowerGroup

ManpowerGroup has been globally recognized for its comprehensive suite of services in staffing and workforce management. Their consistent dedication over 75 years spans across 70 countries, catering to the evolving landscape of work. Highly regarded for its initiatives in diversity and inclusion, ManpowerGroup continues to lead by example, recently being selected as one of the world’s most ethical companies for the 16th time in 2025.

For full details on the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, visit: ManpowerGroup Survey