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Global Equity Capital Markets Recovery in 2025

In 2025, the global equity capital markets (ECM) made notable strides towards recovery, showcasing a commendable resurgence with a 25 percent increase in issuance, amounting to USD 957.2 billion, according to Dealogic's ECM Highlights FY25 report. This upswing marks the most thriving year since 2021, yet the landscape was not without its challenges. Political turbulence, especially the US government shutdown and the events surrounding 'Liberation Day', cast shadows over the IPO pipeline, leading to a stark slowdown of activity in the final quarter of the year.

Key Observations

Solid Year-on-Year Growth

The year 2025 presented a significant recovery point with ECM volumes escalating to USD 957.2 billion, a jump from USD 765.3 billion in 2024. Despite Q4 seeing deal volumes falling to USD 258.7 billion—a 7 percent dip compared to Q3—the numbers still show a 15 percent improvement over the same period last year, which was engulfed in uncertainties related to the US presidential elections. A highlight was the USD 6.3 billion IPO of Medline in December, marking the year's largest deal, and contributing positively towards year-end momentum.

Regional Insights

Americas Leading the Charge

The Americas emerged as the frontrunner in market activities, closing the year at USD 472.7 billion, versus USD 366.9 billion in 2024. The final quarter experienced a stagnant momentum, maintaining roughly flat quarter-on-quarter volumes at USD 131 billion, hindered by the effects of the US government shutdown. Notably, while Medline's IPO was a positive note, crypto-based issuers like BitGo and Grayscale postponed their IPO plans due to the downturn in the cryptocurrency market.

Growth in the Asia-Pacific Region

The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region recorded a total issuance of USD 309 billion, a rise from USD 239 billion the previous year, propelled by listings in Hong Kong, primarily driven by Chinese issuers. However, the fourth quarter witnessed a decrease in activity, plunging to USD 75.6 billion from USD 103.7 billion in Q3, sparked by geopolitical tensions and a cautious investor approach. Interestingly, despite the decline in Hong Kong, Indian ECM activities provided a much-needed cushion against the broader market downturn.

EMEA Demonstrating Strength

In the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region, ECM activity closed the year at USD 175.5 billion, an increase from USD 160 billion in 2024. The fourth quarter showed vibrant growth, amounting to USD 52.1 billion, which contrasted positively with the issuance volumes from Q3—only USD 44.5 billion—highlighting that European issuers remained largely unaffected by the geopolitical convolutions seen in the Americas and APAC.

Outlook for 2026

Sam Kerr, Head of Global ECM and Mergermarket EMEA, reflected on the year's events, stating, "Equity capital markets roared back to life in 2025, representing the best year for equity deal-makers since the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the potential for even greater achievements was marred by the unfortunate incidents including the US government shutdown in Q4 and 'Liberation Day' at the onset of April."

As we look towards 2026, the anticipation builds on whether the momentum achieved can be sustained. The consolidation of private equity issuers is projected to continue, motivated by the necessity to return capital to Limited Partners (LPs), thereby influencing the market dynamics further.

Conclusion

In summary, while 2025 was a challenging year for equity capital markets due to the external socio-political factors, the underlying demand remains significant, paving the way for future growth. The focus shifts to how the market will transition and adapt to these challenges in the upcoming year, positioning investors and market participants to remain agile in a fluctuating environment.