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Overview of June 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Outlook

Cox Automotive's latest forecast reveals an anticipated slowdown in new-vehicle sales for June 2025, reflecting a notable decline from an earlier surge in spring. According to projections, the sales rate in June is expected to reach approximately 15.3 million units, a slight improvement over the same month last year which recorded 15.0 million but a drop from May's total of 15.6 million.

This decline has been attributed to several factors. Firstly, the June sales volume is projected to be down 6.3% compared to last year and a significant 15.2% lower compared to the previous month. The shorter selling period this June, with 24 selling days compared to 26 both last year and last month, is also expected to contribute to the decrease in sales volume.

Second Quarter Performance

Despite the slowdown in June, the outlook for the entire second quarter shows a positive trend. Overall, new-vehicle sales for the second quarter are anticipated to finish nearly 2% higher year-over-year. Factors contributing to this seasonal growth include exceptionally strong results earlier in the quarter, particularly during April and May, which saw higher consumer demand fueled by previous tariff-induced purchasing patterns.

Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, noted, “The sales forecast indicates a cooling market as it becomes more challenging for consumers to find available inventory and dealers become hesitant to offer substantial discounts.” Many of the pull-ahead purchases that stimulated sales earlier have satisfied immediate consumer demand, leading to a projection of weaker sales in the upcoming months.

Monthly Breakdown

In terms of detailed segment performance, particular markets such as mid-size and compact SUVs, which were previously experiencing elevated interest, are now expected to see a decrease. Here’s a breakdown of forecasted units for June and monthly percentage changes:

• - Mid-Size Car: 60,000 units (down 16.5% YoY)
• - Compact Car: 95,000 units (down 3.6% YoY)
• - Compact SUV/Crossover: 210,000 units (down 2.8% YoY)
• - Full-Size Pickup Truck: 180,000 units (down 4.8% YoY)
• - Mid-Size SUV/Crossover: 205,000 units (down 2.9% YoY)
• - Miscellaneous Other Segments: 500,000 units (down 8.6% YoY)

The total sales volume is projected to be around 1.25 million units for June, a reduction compared to earlier months but reflecting the annual fluctuations typical within the automotive forecast cycle.

Looking Ahead

Looking further along this trajectory, Cox Automotive is revising its annual forecast for the 2025 new-vehicle sales market. The company now predicts a sales target of 15.7 million units for the year, slightly reduced from the previous estimate of 16.3 million. This figure represents a modest decline from last year’s outcomes while still signaling overall growth in the first half of 2025.

Major automakers like General Motors, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai are anticipated to capture increased market share. Each has shown resilience in their sales figures, thereby allowing them to thrive even in a challenging environment. For example, GM's sales in the first half of 2025 are projected to exceed 1.4 million units, marking a robust growth rate of over 12% compared to the previous year.

As companies navigate through 2025 and prepare for future market shifts, key takeaways emphasize the importance of adapting to consumer behaviors defined by pricing sensitivities and inventory availability. Expect pricing fluctuations as new tariff processes and vehicle inventories adjust over the summer months.

Conclusion

Overall, the automotive industry continues to face transitions characterized by fluctuating sales metrics. While June's forecasts reflect a cooling off from spring highs, the preliminary year-over-year increase pinpoints the resilience of certain automakers and suggests ongoing opportunities for growth as new inventory flows into the market. Cox Automotive remains committed to delivering insights driven by extensive data analysis to help stakeholders navigate these evolving landscapes.