#United States #New York #Labor Market #Conference Board #Employment Trends Index

The Employment Trends Index Sees Positive Growth

The Conference Board recently reported a rise in its Employment Trends Index (ETI), which reached 109.70 in December 2024, reflecting an increase from a revised 109.45 in November. This index serves as a key leading indicator for payroll employment, suggesting that when it goes up, employment growth is likely to follow. Such trends highlight the index's ability to signal future changes in job gains and losses.

Experts believe that this rising trend in the ETI may indicate a normalization of the labor market that has been ongoing since 2022. As we close out 2024, the index sits at its highest level since June of that year, which offers optimism about the employment landscape entering 2025. Mitchell Barnes, an economist at The Conference Board, stated, "The ETI extended its streak of gains to three months in December, suggesting that the labor market's stabilization might have reached its lowest point mid-year."

The current economic climate reflects growing confidence in both the labor market and future employment opportunities. The metric showing that consumers find it challenging to get jobs has dropped for three consecutive months, landing at 14.8% in December, compared to 18.6% in September. This decline aligns with increased employer confidence and a rebound in job openings—now exceeding 8 million for the first time since May 2024.

Barnes emphasized that worries surrounding unemployment have lessened, as the labor market finds a better balance. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have reached their lowest level since April, with a notable reduction in part-time workers seeking full-time positions. Additionally, the temporary-help industry has seen growth for two consecutive months, reflecting broader hiring gains through the last quarter of 2024.

The stable footing of the labor market is noteworthy, especially in light of the long normalization following the pandemic recovery. With high employment rates and rising wages, consumer spending remains robust, indicating a potential stability in labor demand as businesses navigate an uncertain economic and policy landscape.

The rise in December's Employment Trends Index can be attributed to the positive performance of five out of its eight components. These include the ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers, industrial production, the percentage of respondents who reported difficulty finding jobs, real manufacturing and trade sales, and the number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry.

Aggregating these components allows the Employment Trends Index to omit extraneous fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the underlying employment trends. The eight key indicators that contribute to the ETI include:

• - Percentage of Consumers Reporting Difficulty Finding Jobs (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• - Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (Department of Labor)
• - Percentage of Firms Struggling to Fill Positions (National Federation of Independent Business)
• - Temporary-Help Industry Hiring (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• - Ratio of Involuntary Part-Time Workers (BLS)
• - Job Openings (BLS)
• - Industrial Production (Federal Reserve)
• - Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Each of these indicators has shown to be accurate within its own context, and their aggregation results in a comprehensive view of employment trends. The ETI is updated monthly, offering insights that are highly relevant for understanding shifts in the job market.

For more information, visit The Conference Board's official website for technical notes and detailed methodology on the ETI publication schedule, which includes forthcoming releases scheduled throughout 2025. This systematic approach to data collection and analysis continues to lend credibility to The Conference Board's findings and insights regarding the employment trends in the U.S. economy.