New ETC Report Validates Wind and Solar Power Systems as Competitive and Reliable

Introduction

A groundbreaking report from the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) titled Power Systems Transformation: Delivering Competitive, Resilient Electricity in High-Renewable Systems has brought new hope to the renewable energy sector. This pivotal publication indicates that global power systems predominantly based on wind and solar energy can offer reliable electricity at costs comparable to, or even lower than, today’s fossil fuel systems.

Key Findings

The report’s findings suggest a significant transition in the energy landscape. Currently, electricity accounts for approximately 20% of global end-energy consumption, but projections indicate that in a decarbonized energy system, it could rise to cover up to 70%. By 2050, global electricity demand might triple, reaching 90,000 TWh, largely sourced from wind and solar energy.

Potential for Global Implementation

Countries across various climatic zones have the potential to shift towards wind and solar-dominant systems—a feat already achievable with today's proven technologies like battery storage, flexible energy usage, and long-distance transmission capabilities. The report highlights significant opportunities, particularly for nations within the "Sunbelt," including India, Mexico, and much of Africa, which are well-positioned to adopt cheap solar-powered systems that require essential day-night balancing.

Conversely, countries in the "Windbelt," such as the UK, Germany, and Canada, face higher balancing costs due to increased reliance on wind energy but can still achieve affordable and stable systems through targeted policies and innovations.

The Role of Grid Improvements and Policy Reforms

To maintain cost competitiveness and reliability, swift electrification of buildings, transportation, and industries must occur concurrently with the decarbonization of power systems. The report emphasizes that multiple technologies—including nuclear and geothermal—can contribute to a carbon-free energy landscape; however, wind and solar are expected to dominate, supplying at least 70% of power at costs comparable to fossil fuel systems.

Adair Turner, the chairman of ETC, commented on the trends within the industry, noting that the decrease in solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery costs has enabled more rapid development in renewable energy than previously anticipated. Additionally, even nations in the Windbelt can achieve cost-efficient decarbonization by advancing offshore wind, long-term energy storage, and innovative grid solutions.

Economic Considerations and Investments

The report reveals that high-performance wind and solar systems can compete with current wholesale pricing and grid costs. In Sunbelt nations, electricity prices could fall as low as $30 to $40 per MWh, more than halving by 2050. While wind-reliant countries may experience higher costs, they also have the potential to reach competitive rates as technology continues to advance.

However, the journey to complete decarbonization will not be without challenges, particularly during the 'last mile' of the process where costs peak, especially in areas that require complex solutions to manage seasonal demand fluctuations. Once nations reach very low carbon intensity thresholds (under 50 g CO2 per kWh), electrification becomes more critical than hastening decarbonization efforts.

Demand-Side Flexibility and Infrastructure Needs

Flexibility from the demand side can contribute to meeting up to 30% of global electricity requirements, necessitating dynamic pricing frameworks and smart management technologies. Additionally, maintaining stable grid costs will be essential, requiring a more than doubling of the global electricity network length by 2050, with expected annual investments soaring from $370 billion in 2024 to around $870 billion in the 2030s.

Conclusion: An Urgent Call for Action

Christiana Figueres, founding partner of Global Optimism, stresses the urgent need for clean electricity as integral to both climate protection and economic development. Countries are encouraged to invest in renewable energy, grid infrastructure, and enhance flexibility to build robust and future-proof economies. The ETC emphasizes that effective collaboration between policymakers, the energy sector, and financial bodies is essential for accelerating the renewable energy transition.

To achieve this vision, strategic planning is necessary for wind and solar installations, rapid electrification aligned with grid expansion, streamlined reforms to energize investments, and resolution of workforce and supply chain bottlenecks. Collectively, these actions stand to transform global energy systems, thereby fostering job creation and economic progress.