#United States #New York #Consumer Confidence #Conference Board #Economic Outlook

Consumer Confidence in August 2025

The latest report from the Conference Board indicates that consumer confidence in the United States experienced a minor decline in August 2025. The Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 1.3 points to 97.4, down from 98.7 in July, which was revised up. Despite this slight dip, the index remains aligned with readings from the previous three months, suggesting a period of relative stability.

Breaking Down the Confidence Index

The decline can be attributed to a mixture of factors. The Present Situation Index, which measures perceptions of current business and labor market conditions, decreased by 1.6 points to reach 131.2. In contrast, the Expectations Index, reflecting consumer outlook on income and business conditions, witnessed a slight drop of 1.2 points to 74.8. This figure remains below the concerning threshold of 80, which typically raises flags for potential recessionary indicators. Preliminary results for this survey were collected by August 20, 2025.

Economic Outlook and Employment Concerns

Stephanie Guichard, a Senior Economist at the Conference Board, emphasized that while confidence has slightly diminished, consumers are experiencing a mixed view of present circumstances and future expectations. Noteworthy is the continued decline in consumer perception of job availability, dropping for the eighth consecutive month. Conversely, there has been a boost in the overall assessment of business conditions among consumers, consequently softening the decline in the Present Situation Index.

Looking forward, concerns about labor market conditions have crept back into consumer dialogues, even as optimism regarding future income has diminished. Alongside this sentiment, many voices in the survey pointed to rising tariff discussions and their contributions to inflationary pressures, particularly in food and grocery markets. Inflation expectations for the next year surged to 6.2%, up from 5.7% in July, still below the peak of 7.0% earlier in April.

Demographic Variances in Confidence

Dividing consumer confidence across demographics presents interesting patterns. The index saw a drop among consumers aged under 35, while those aged 55 and above reported improved confidence levels. Among political affiliations, both Republicans and Democrats exhibited reduced confidence, while Independents showed little change. This suggests that economic sentiments may be influencing political landscapes as well.

Predictions and Economic Influences

Despite the straightforward decreases in consumer sentiment, certain buying intentions have shown promise, especially in the automotive sector, where plans to purchase cars increased. Intentions regarding home purchases stabilized after a notable decline in July, though consumers' willingness to invest in larger tickets items like TVs and tablets has decreased. However, optimism persists in specific service categories like financial services and home maintenance, indicating a selective approach to spending priorities.

Looking at the labor market, predictions for stock prices have slightly worsened, with a decrease in the number of consumers expecting stock price increases over the next year. Additionally, an increase in those forecasting interest rate hikes reflects growing concerns about the broader economic environment.

Summary and Future Outlook

Overall, while consumer confidence has dipped, assessments of current financial situations remain relatively stable. Yet, the likelihood of a recession has risen to concerning levels for many consumers. The results suggest a cautious approach to spending and investments, attuned to the general uncertainties surrounding the US economy.

The data from the Consumer Confidence Survey® is instrumental in providing insights into American consumer behavior and economic expectations, serving as a critical assessment tool for businesses and policymakers alike as we navigate uncertain economic waters.