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Deloitte's Holiday Retail Sales Outlook 2026-2027

As the holiday season approaches, Deloitte has released its annual retail forecast, projecting significant growth in holiday sales for the upcoming season. According to their analysis, retail sales from November 2026 to January 2027 are expected to range between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion. This represents an increase of 4.0% to 4.8% compared to the prior year's holiday season, which also saw a growth of 4.1%.

Factors Driving Growth

Several factors are anticipated to fuel this growth. Deloitte's forecast indicates that disposable personal income (DPI) is a critical contributor to retail sales, with expectations of a 4.5% to 5.2% increase in DPI during the holiday period. Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights, highlighted that a rise in DPI often correlates with increased consumer spending either in-store or online. Furthermore, the ongoing shift towards e-commerce is anticipated to play a significant role, with sales projected to reach between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 7.5% to 8.4%.

The E-commerce Boom

The surge in e-commerce is expected to be driven by consumers increasingly utilizing digital tools for shopping. Reports suggest that shoppers will continue to leverage various online platforms for research, price comparisons, and purchasing decisions across multiple categories. This trend not only reflects consumer behavior but also the effectiveness of digital promotions in attracting buyers.

Consumer Behavior Trends

In this year’s forecast, Natalie Martini, vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products leader at Deloitte, noted a shift in consumer behaviors during the holidays. Shoppers are increasingly focusing on creating memorable experiences for their families while being more economical in their expenditures. There is a rising trend of value-seeking behavior as consumers evaluate their options more deliberatively; they are switching brands, hunting for promotional offers, and becoming more selective in their purchases.

Comparison to Previous Years

To put these numbers in perspective, the holiday retail sales for the period between November 2025 and January 2026, excluding automotive and gasoline sales, totaled $1.63 trillion, marking a solid increase from the previous year. E-commerce sales for the same period were approximated at $294 billion, witnessing an increase of 7.5%. This strong growth pattern is anticipated to continue as the shopping habits evolve, especially amidst uncertainties in various economic sectors.

Looking Ahead

With the holiday season approaching, retailers are poised to prepare for what could be a record-breaking sales period. As consumer preferences continue to shift towards digital solutions and companies enhance their online offerings, there is potential for an exciting and lucrative holiday season ahead. Overall, Deloitte's positive outlook reflects the resilience of the retail sector and the adaptation of consumers to new shopping behaviors in the digital age.

Deloitte, a leader in audit, consulting, tax, and advisory services, aims to make a meaningful impact by aligning businesses with effective strategies to navigate today's complex retail landscape.

For those looking to maximize their holiday shopping experience, leveraging these insights may provide a competitive edge in navigating the busy retail environment this season.