Wintermute Report Forecasts 2025: Crypto's Shift Towards Established Asset Class Designation

Overview of Wintermute's 2025 OTC Markets Report

Wintermute, recognized globally as a leading algorithmic trading firm and OTC desk in the digital assets space, has published its Digital Asset OTC Markets 2025 report. This report marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of the crypto market, showcasing how liquidity dynamics, capital concentration, and evolving trading strategies define the current landscape.

Key Findings

The 2025 report sheds light on several critical aspects of the crypto trading environment. One of its main conclusions is the increasing centralization of capital within major tokens, such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), while altcoin rallies become less sustainable.

1. Concentration of Trading Activity: The report indicates that trading activity has increasingly focused on a select group of large-cap tokens. While the share of BTC and ETH in total market trade slightly declined from 54% in 2023 to 49% in 2025, this shift is attributed to the rise of other large-cap assets, rather than broader participation from altcoins. Notably, blue-chip tokens outside of BTC and ETH, including top ten assets by market capitalization, gained substantial trading volume share, influenced by the introduction of ETFs and digital asset trust products.

2. Diminished Altcoin Rally Duration: Another significant observation is the surprisingly brief lifespans of altcoin rallies. The average duration of such rallies fell from 61 days in 2024 to approximately 19 days in 2025. This trend indicates a struggle for altcoins to maintain momentum, with emerging themes like meme coin platforms and decentralized exchange innovations not being able to sustain their initial success. The reduced liquidity and less engaging narratives hindered these occurrences, conveying a clear downturn in altcoin fervor.

3. Surging Options Trading: Options trading also experienced a dramatic increase, more than doubling year-over-year during 2025. This surge reflects a shift toward systematic and strategic trading approaches, supplanting previous speculative tendencies. As the year progressed, trading volumes for options peaked significantly, revealing a more sophisticated derivatives market—one that favors comprehensive risk management and systematic execution.

4. Transformation of Liquidity Sources: Moreover, the mechanisms by which capital enters the crypto market have undergone a fundamental transformation. ETFs and digital asset treasury vehicles have generated steadier inflows primarily directed toward large-cap tokens, thus adding to the growing concentration of capital. However, these vehicles limit broader market distribution, causing liquidity to remain