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US Dealmaking Expected to Surge in 2026

In an optimistic forecast, EY-Parthenon has projected an 8% growth in US dealmaking, specifically for transactions exceeding $100 million, for the year 2026. This outlook comes at a time when many businesses are aligning their strategies with the rising importance of artificial intelligence (AI) and responding to new market demands shaped by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating economic conditions.

The Current Landscape of Dealmaking

According to the recently released 2026 M&A Outlook by EY-Parthenon, businesses in the United States are making strategic moves to secure their competitive edges. An impressive 73% of executives surveyed indicated that various economic pressures, including changes in interest rates and supply chain disruptions, have significantly influenced their growth strategies in the preceding year. As a result, organizations are prioritizing large strategic transactions aimed at enhancing their resilience in the face of unpredictability.

Mitch Berlin, Vice Chair of EY Americas, highlighted that while external challenges present hurdles, many CEOs view mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as pivotal instruments for transforming their organizations during this period of technological acceleration. Organizations are expected to invest in capabilities and technologies that will not only help them navigate the current disruptions but also position themselves for future growth.

A Divided Market: Corporate vs. Private Equity Dealmaking

The EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer notes a significant trend divergence between corporate M&A and private equity (PE) activity. Corporate deal volume is predicted to rise by 11% in 2026, whereas PE deal volume is expected to remain stagnant. This shift is evident in the trends observed in Q1 2026, where corporate M&A experienced a staggering 22% increase year-on-year, while PE deal volume slid down by 11%.

The behavior of corporate players has shifted towards more resilience-focused activities, with an anticipated growth rate for deal volume between 5%-13% based on economic conditions. With strong corporate profits and favorable regulatory environments enhancing confidence, an increasing number of CEOs plan to reshape their enterprises entirely through targeted M&A activity.

Conversely, private equity firms are adopting a more cautious and selective strategy in their investments. After witnessing an 11% drop in deal volume during the first quarter of the year, PE investors are placing a stronger focus on sector-specific opportunities, particularly in asset-heavy sectors like energy and infrastructure. With ongoing geopolitical turmoil and expected interest rate hikes, these sectors present some stability.

Investing in the Future

As businesses pivot toward greater technological integration, there is a heightened focus on AI and other transformative technologies. Companies see these as critical to not only maintain their competitive advantage but also safeguard their margins and secure necessary capabilities across various domains, including talent acquisition, product development, and market expansion.

The EY-Parthenon report emphasizes that private equity investors are now analyzing opportunities through a lens of risk, being more judicious with their capital allocation. The highlighted shift toward asset-heavy investments suggests a strategic pivot designed to weather the potential financial volatility that higher interest rates may introduce.

Conclusion

While the path forward is not without challenges, the anticipated growth in US dealmaking for 2026 reflects a resilient market where adaptive strategies are key. As organizations continue to navigate economic uncertainties and geopolitical shifts, enhancing technological capabilities and pursuing growth through meaningful mergers and acquisitions will likely define the competitive landscape in the years to come.