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Sinopec's Groundbreaking Energy Forecast for 2060

The China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, commonly known as Sinopec, has made headlines with its recently released long-term energy outlook, which provides critical insights into both global and Chinese energy scenarios leading up to the year 2060. This marks a significant milestone as it serves as the first comprehensive global energy perspective of its kind published by Sinopec. Below are the key takeaways from this innovative forecast, which highlights the transition in energy consumption, production, and emerging technologies.

Insights into Global Energy Trends

Sinopec's forecast delves into detailed projections regarding fossil and renewable energy landscapes worldwide. Key highlights include:

1. Rising Energy Demand: Global primary energy consumption is expected to peak at around 26.71 billion tons of coal equivalent by 2045, with renewable sources projected to account for a staggering 51.8% of total energy consumption by 2060.

2. Shift in Consumption Patterns: The report anticipates that global energy demand will gradually slow down, reaching about 25.25 billion tons of coal equivalent by 2060. Notably, oil and gas are predicted to jointly contribute to 35.7% of total energy consumption during this period.

3. Peak Oil Consumption: Oil usage is projected to peak at approximately 4.66 billion tons around 2030, with a notable shift in its application from transportation to industrial feedstocks. Nevertheless, oil is expected to retain its status as the dominant fuel for transportation, comprising 40% of total transport energy demand by 2060.

4. Growth of Non-Fossil Energy Sources: There will be significant growth in non-fossil energy sources such as hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), as well as advanced energy storage technologies. The hydrogen market alone is expected to exceed 340 million tons by 2060, with its energy contribution surging from 2% in 2023 to nearly 50% in 2060. Furthermore, CCUS capacity is projected to reach upwards of 4.7 billion tons of CO₂ by 2060.

Focus on China’s Energy Transition

Sinopec also emphasizes critical aspects of energy consumption and transformation specific to China through its 2025 China Energy Outlook.

1. Stabilization of Energy Consumption: It forecasts a stabilization post-2030 in China’s primary energy consumption, peaking at a range between 6.8 to 7.1 billion tons of coal equivalent. Oil consumption is anticipated to reach its peak before 2027, hitting 800 million tons, while natural gas will see moderate to high growth, especially from 2026 to 2030.

2. Transition Towards Non-Fossil Fuels: By 2035, it is expected that non-fossil fuel energy generation in China will exceed fossil fuel generation, achieving 8,400 TWh. The reliance on a diversified energy mix, integrating electricity, hydrogen, ammonia, and other clean alternatives, will become increasingly crucial.

3. Peak Carbon Emissions: China’s carbon dioxide emissions related to energy are projected to experience a slight rise, peaking between 10.8 and 11.2 billion tons. This trajectory is aligned with the country’s goal to peak carbon emissions by 2030, fostering sustainable growth.

Insights into the Chemical and Energy Sectors

Additionally, Sinopec has presented a report on China’s energy and chemical industry development by 2025, addressing key challenges and advancements:

• - Near-Max Refining Capacity: The capacity of oil refining in China is nearing its limit, with production anticipated to stabilize at 960 to 970 million tons annually by 2025.
• - Challenges in the Chemical Sector: Despite growth, significant challenges such as overcapacity in olefin and aromatic hydrocarbon industries persist. This ongoing situation may hinder sustainable expansion of the chemical market.
• - Innovative Growth: Innovation is recognized as the principal driving force pushing China’s energy and chemical industries towards a more sustainable future.

Conclusion

Through these insightful reports, Sinopec not only sets forth a comprehensive roadmap for the energy landscape of the future but also emphasizes its commitment to facilitating the energy transition in China through fostering technology and promoting sustainable, low-carbon solutions. Policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders are urged to adapt to and embrace the anticipated changes in the energy sector as they gear up for a greener future.