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Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Slight Decline in September 2025

As the third quarter of 2025 closes, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) has reported a slight dip, dropping to 207.0 in September, reflecting a 0.2% decrease compared to August. Despite this fall, year-over-year values increased by 2%, suggesting that even with monthly fluctuations, the market exhibits resilience. The analysis considers mixed mileage and seasonal adjustments, indicating that while wholesale prices have dipped, they remain relatively stable when compared to typical depreciation trends.

In further detail, the reported shifts in used vehicle prices reveal a complex market landscape. For instance, non-seasonally adjusted values actually increased slightly by 0.1% in September, with average prices rising 2.1% compared to the same period last year. This suggests that the market is dealing better than expected with typical seasonal declines. Jeremy Robb, deputy chief economist for Cox Automotive, highlighted that even as Q3 closed, wholesale vehicle values maintained an elevated position against customary depreciation metrics. He noted the continued strong sales in both new and used markets during Q3, pointing out some declines towards the end of September.

Electric Vehicle Market on the Rise

Interestingly, September also marked a noteworthy performance in the electric vehicle (EV) segment, where used EV values soared by 6.4% year over year. This uptrend illustrates consumers' increasing inclination toward electric vehicles, driven partly by the anticipation of tax incentives set to expire. Robb emphasized consumer demand remained high for both new and used EVs prior to these changes, driving an impressive appreciation in EV wholesale values once again this month. However, the ending of tax credits may lead to uncertainty in the future, particularly for those considering a transition to EV ownership.

Retail Sales and Market Dynamics

On the retail side, the used vehicle sales showed a decline of 3.9% from August and a 2% drop from the previous year. As average retail listing prices increased by approximately 1.5% over four weeks, the average days' supply of available used vehicles stood at 46, indicating a tighter inventory scenario compared to prior months. This heightened supply could potentially create price pressures in the upcoming months as consumers navigate their buying decisions amid rising interest rates and concerns over economic factors that could affect auto financing.

Economic Outlook for Q4

Despite the challenges anticipated in Q4, experts like Cox Automotive’s Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke remain cautiously optimistic about the overall economy and its impact on vehicle demand. He indicated that the backdrop of pent-up demand could cushion the market against a more severe slowdown. Nevertheless, continuing costs related to tariffs and increased interest rates are likely to pose headwinds for both buyers and sellers in the used vehicle market.

A Mixed Bag of Segment Performances

In terms of market sector performance, the luxury vehicle segment continued to lead with year-over-year gains, reflecting a robust demand that aligns with the increasing prominence of electric models. Conversely, the compact car segment struggled, showing a dramatic decline of 6.5% compared to the last year, underscoring the ongoing shifts in consumer preferences towards larger and more versatile vehicle options.

Overall, while the MUVVI indicated a minor setback in September, the mixed-performance segments suggest areas to watch as the market transitions into the fourth quarter of 2025. The overall sentiment remains that while there may be hurdles ahead, the strength shown in various segments could provide a foundation for recovery.

Looking Ahead

In summary, Cox Automotive’s revised forecasts suggest a potential for used vehicle sales to reach between 37.9 and 38.5 million units in 2025, slightly exceeding previous expectations. However, strong market fundamentals face risks from supply chain challenges and regulatory shifts as the year progresses.

For continued updates on the auto market and comprehensive insights, visit Cox Automotive’s official site and stay informed about the latest trends impacting the industry.