FBS Reveals How Markets Are Navigating Without Federal Guidance During Crisis

FBS's Insightful Market Analysis Amid Government Shutdown

In a comprehensive new report, FBS, an established global brokerage firm, examines the evolving landscape of financial markets as they adapt to the ongoing US government shutdown, which commenced in early October 2025. This unprecedented two-week shutdown has not only tested the resilience of financial infrastructure but also left traders to rely on their interpretation of market signals, as crucial economic data such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) releases are on hold.

FBS analysts emphasize that while this information vacuum might seem to imply a decrease in liquidity, it has rather rendered that liquidity invisible. The global M2 liquidity index, a crucial measure of the money supply, remains high in economies such as the US, Europe, Japan, China, and the UK. However, its correlation with official policy messaging appears increasingly disjointed. As a consequence, investment strategies are shifting, with traders now turning to Bitcoin, gold, and bond yields for immediate economic signals in the absence of clear guidance from the Federal Reserve.

“Liquidity hasn’t vanished; it’s just not being measured anymore,” state FBS experts. In this new paradigm, the market has transformed into its own data feed, dictated by real-time liquidity dynamics.

Bitcoin's Resilient Performance

FBS’s findings reveal a notable shift in Bitcoin's trading dynamics. Historically, Bitcoin’s price movements lagged behind the global M2 index. Currently, however, the cryptocurrency is aligning closely with liquidity trends, indicating a remarkable adaptation of the market to these new trading conditions. Following substantial liquidation events totaling over $24 billion—a record-breaking one in crypto history—Bitcoin’s leverage structure has since recalibrated. Presently, Bitcoin’s performance hinges on a crucial price level set at $102,000. This threshold could dictate whether Bitcoin embarks on an extended bull cycle or transitions into a correction phase.

Emerging Risks of Stagflation

As inflation continues to climb and economic growth stagnates, fears of stagflation are resurfacing. Fed officials including Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly have highlighted that rising prices stem more from supply chain disruptions than from demand surges. This uncertainty is prompting investors to explore safer assets such as gold and Bitcoin to hedge against instability in fiat currencies.

Ethereum Faces Pivotal Moment

In another sector of the cryptocurrency market, FBS analysts point out the critical retest of Ethereum’s technical indicators. Having broken below a significant long-term upward trendline, Ethereum (ETH) is now testing this level from beneath. This juncture will determine if the price movement represents a mere temporary fluctuation or signals the beginning of a more profound downward trend. The upcoming liquidity zones are anticipated around the $3,200 to $3,400 range, while reclaiming the higher figure of $4,300 to $4,500 would signal renewed market strength.

Conclusion: The Market Moves Independently

FBS posits that the last quarter of 2025 serves as a test of financial markets' autonomy. Despite the lack of explicit policy guidance, liquidity continues to influence price movements, signifying that markets are active, determining their trajectories independently as economic conditions shift. The analysis underscores a significant transition in how traders are engaging with the market, prompting a re-evaluation of conventional trading strategies in the context of evolving economic landscapes.

With the ongoing developments, it remains to be seen how long this juncture lasts and what implications it will bear on both traditional and digital asset markets.

For in-depth insights and ongoing updates, users can access the full analysis from FBS. The material provided is intended for informational purposes and does not constitute trading or investment advice.