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Global Peace Index 2026: Record Conflicts and Military AI Wages

The Global Peace Index (GPI) for 2026, released by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), indicates a historical low in global peace, driven by interconnected conflicts and a fast-evolving landscape in warfare technology. The findings reveal profound geopolitical shifts, especially as traditional European powers wane and middle powers rise, a phenomenon termed 'The Great Fragmentation.'

As conflicts become increasingly complex, the safety and survival of individuals are now subject to decisions made faster than humans can comprehend, driven by artificial intelligence (AI). With inadequate international regulations, these developments pose serious ethical dilemmas. The 2026 GPI report reveals startling statistics:

• - 99 countries have seen a decline in peace over the last year, the highest since the GPI’s inception two decades ago.
• - 119 countries—73% of nations surveyed—are less peaceful than they were in 2007, the first year of the index.
• - The number of countries engaged in external conflicts has almost doubled from 59 in 2008 to 103 in the current report.
• - It’s estimated that the global economic cost of violence rose by 3.2%, reaching a staggering $21.81 trillion in 2025, representing 10.5% of the global GDP.
• - The use of drones skyrocketed, increasing by 11,500% from 2018 to 2025, while AI has cut down attack preparation time from a day to mere seconds.
• - Conflict-related deaths hit a record high with over 181,000 fatalities in 2025, marking a six-fold rise since 2008.
• - Global military expenditure reached an unprecedented $2.9 trillion in 2025, with Europe leading this surge, excluding the US which also saw military spending jump by 9.2%.

Moreover, peace has deteriorated for a twelfth consecutive year, with 61 active conflicts among states, the highest since World War II. The ongoing internal conflicts have tripled the death toll since 2007, increasing from 29,000 to over 181,000 in 2025.

The specter of increased instability can be attributed to the rise of non-state actors and rampant illegal economies that finance conflicts more heavily than traditional state resources. The war in Sudan exemplifies this, showcasing how interconnected conflicts across borders can lead to mass humanitarian crises, with an estimated 150,000 deaths and millions displaced.

Among the most notable findings of the Global Peace Index is the alarming rate at which AI technology has been integrated into military operations. In areas like Gaza, the targeting of operations via algorithms has dramatically reduced the human review time to approximately 20 seconds. In Ukraine, autonomous systems are being deployed to conduct attacks with minimal human oversight, raising ethical questions about accountability and the potential for increased civilian casualties.

Global Highlights
Iceland continues to rank as the most peaceful country for the 19th consecutive year, followed by New Zealand, Switzerland, Slovenia, and Ireland. Conversely, Russia has now become the world's least peaceful country, followed closely by Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ukraine, and Israel. South Asia has faced the largest decline in peace, particularly due to escalating tensions in Nepal and Pakistan. The U.S. has also seen a 4% drop in peace rankings, the lowest since the GPI's founding.

The increasing economic impact of violence is stark, with 10 of the most affected nations averaging a 23.4% GDP loss compared to just 2.2% in the least affected countries. As identified by Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of IEP, the rapid changes in geopolitics and technology have outpaced international peace institutions, complicating conflict resolution efforts.

Looking Ahead
As the Great Fragmentation continues to reshape global dynamics, the need for effective governance, international cooperation, and ethical considerations in the use of military AI becomes more pressing. The interactions of self-financed illegal economies, indigenous conflicts, and geopolitical instability call for immediate and substantial diplomatic efforts to avert further escalations. Failure to achieve coherence in international relations and peacekeeping could lead to irrevocable economic and humanitarian crises, profoundly affecting global stability and security in the years to come.

The full report on the Global Peace Index (GPI) 2026 and an interactive map can be found at visionofhumanity.org and economicsandpeace.org.