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The 2025 Global Peace Index: A Frightening Snapshot of Deteriorating Peace

The Global Peace Index (GPI) released by the Institute for Economics and Peace has revealed an alarming situation regarding global peace. This year marks a continued decline in peacefulness, with critical indicators of impending conflict reaching unprecedented levels since World War II.

The current geopolitical landscape is marked by an increase in violent deaths, heightened tensions among nations, and the assertive behaviors of middle powers, which contribute to what is termed the 'Great Fragmentation'. This phenomenon signifies a fundamental restructuring of the global order, paving the way for a new geopolitical era. The combination of competition among major powers, asymmetric warfare technologies, and soaring debt in fragile economies suggests a high likelihood of new conflicts emerging.

Key Findings from the 2025 Global Peace Index

The GPI report reveals several key trends and statistics that underscore the deterioration of global peace:

• - Lowest Peace Levels: Global peace is at its lowest since the inception of the GPI, with pre-conflict conditions the worst they have been since WWII.
• - Ongoing Conflicts: As of 2024, there are 59 active state conflicts, the highest number recorded since WWII. These conflicts resulted in approximately 152,000 recorded deaths related to violence.
• - Increased Casualties: In 2024, 17 countries reported over 1,000 deaths due to internal conflicts, a figure that has not been seen since 1999.
• - Fragmentation of Global Power: The global power structure is fracturing, with the number of countries capable of exerting significant influence increasing from 13 at the Cold War's end to 34 today.
• - Internationalization of Conflicts: The number of countries engaged in conflicts beyond their borders rose to 78 in 2024, indicating a trend towards the internationalization of violence.
• - Economic Impact of Violence: The global economic cost of violence reached an astounding $19.97 trillion in 2024, accounting for 11.6% of the world’s GDP. Notably, military spending alone hit $2.7 trillion.

The data illustrate that countries are increasingly engaging in international conflicts that cross borders, further complicating the path to lasting peace.

A Critical Juncture in Global Affairs

The landscape of global power has become increasingly complex, and the potential for new conflicts is coupled with a troubling decrease in global investment in conflict prevention. In 2024, 87 countries saw a deterioration in their peace metrics, while only 74 reported improvements. Nevertheless, certain indicators, including crime rates and homicide levels, showed improvements, suggesting a dual reality of global peace dynamics.

Furthermore, countries facing violent conflicts report GDP declines of up to 30% within a year, highlighting the deep economic ramifications of ongoing violence. Unfortunately, global investment in peacekeeping measures is at its lowest in over two decades, constituting just 0.52% of total military spending in 2024.

Regional Analysis of Peace and Conflict

In terms of regional peace, Western and Central Europe remains the most peaceful part of the globe. Iceland continues its unbroken streak as the world's most peaceful nation since 2008, followed by Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Yet, as the influence of these European nations wavers amid low growth and reduced foreign assistance, their global impact continues to decline.

Conversely, for the first time, Russia has been marked as the least peaceful country, accompanied by Ukraine, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Yemen. Despite Europe's military expenditure far exceeding Russia's, their combined military effectiveness remains limited, with rising defense budgets potentially exacerbating existing social tensions.

Central and North America have witnessed a significant decline in peace, especially in Canada, where relations with neighboring countries like the U.S. have soured. The increase in violent protests in the U.S. further signals a growing internal conflict landscape, with over 1,500 violent demonstrations recorded since 2020.

Conclusion: Increasing Complexity in Modern Warfare

The ever-evolving nature of technology has transformed modern warfare, making conflicts longer and more accessible. The number of companies producing drones surged from six in 2022 to more than 200 in 2024, with predictions that Ukraine could generate over 2.5 million drones by 2025. These drones, bolstered by artificial intelligence, present a new frontier in warfare, drastically changing the balance of power and potentially prolonging conflicts.

In conclusion, the Global Peace Index points to a critical moment in global history, indicating a dire need for renewed efforts towards sustaining peace amid ongoing fragmentation and conflict dynamics. The behaviors of middle powers and the implications of rising tensions signify a departure from traditional conflict resolution frameworks, heralding a more complex international landscape in the years ahead.