#USA #New York #Home Prices #Case-Shiller #Cotality

Examination of the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Trends

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index for November 2025 has reported an annual increase of 1.4%, consistent with the gains observed in the previous month. However, the situation reveals a more complex narrative beneath the surface. The findings underscore a downturn in real home values, as consumer inflation, which hit 2.7%, effectively outpaced the index's gain by 1.3 percentage points, indicating a potential decrease in affordability for many buyers.

Regional Divergence in Home Prices

A closer examination of regional dynamics showcases stark contrasts across different areas. Chicago leads the charge with a notable 5.7% increase year-over-year, followed closely by New York which recorded a 5.0% rise. These cities demonstrate resilience amidst overall market coolness. Conversely, areas within the Sun Belt, including Tampa (-3.9%), Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%), are showcasing declines, deviating significantly from their pandemic-era growth trajectories.

Insights from Nicholas Godec

Nicholas Godec, a prominent analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, commented on the market’s sluggish growth: "November's results confirm that the housing market has entered a period of tepid growth. National home prices were only 1.4% higher than a year ago, remaining near the weakest performance since mid-2023. This subdued growth is sharply lower than the 3.7% increase seen in November 2024. As inflation continues to impact overall purchasing power, home values are effectively flat when adjusted for inflation."

Monthly Trends and Seasonal Adjustments

Despite the overall tepid annual growth, December data indicates a mix of trends. On a monthly basis, the U.S. National Index saw a minor decrease of 0.1%, while the 10-City Composite experienced a slight uptick of 0.1%. Seasonal adjustments portrayed a better picture, suggesting that price momentum remains subdued but signalling some resilience in select markets. Only a few metropolitan areas, including Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, New York, and Phoenix, posted slight monthly gains before seasonal adjustments.

High Mortgage Rates and Their Impact

High mortgage rates continue to impede potential buyers, with 30-year loan rates hovering around the mid-6% range in November. This imposes an affordability barrier that limits substantial price growth, even as mortgage costs have eased slightly from their peak levels. The overall financial landscape has led many would-be buyers to reconsider entering the market, which further exacerbates the supply-demand equilibrium.

Summary of Key Findings

The compiled data from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index, which encapsulates detailed housing metrics across nine U.S. census divisions, further illustrates the following:

• - The 10-City Composite index reported a modest annual increase of 2.0% for November, while the 20-City Composite managed to secure a year-over-year rise of 1.4%.
• - On a per-city basis, the sharpest annual price decline was noted in Tampa, reinforcing its current challenges in the housing sector.
• - The market depicts a complicated tapestry of performance metrics; where some regions thrive, others face difficulties reminiscent of the immediate post-pandemic period.

Conclusion

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index's findings present a mixed yet revealing portrayal of the current U.S. housing market. As inflation continues to challenge home affordability, the regional disparities will likely shape buyer sentiments and future price trajectories. The housing industry awaits further clarity as more data becomes available in the coming months, particularly from affected areas like Detroit, where transaction delays have obscured current trends. Stakeholders should remain vigilant as this evolving situation develops into 2026 and beyond.