Global Notebook Shipments Expected to Decline as Memory Prices Surge

Notebook Market Faces Challenges in 2026

In a recent report, TrendForce has revised its projections for global notebook shipments in 2026, anticipating a concerning decline of 5.4% year-on-year. This shift is attributed to various factors including a sluggish economic recovery, cautious consumer spending, and most notably, surging memory prices that threaten profit margins for numerous brands. As a result, the total shipments are expected to reach around 173 million units, which indicates a strategic pivot by brands regarding inventory management and promotional activities.

Rising Costs and Its Impact

The increase in memory prices is a significant challenge affecting the notebook market. If these costs do not stabilize by the second quarter of 2026, there is a possibility that demand for entry-level and consumer models could diminish even further. Under this scenario, shipments could potentially contract by up to 10.1% year-on-year. This decline reveals a broader trend: brands are seeking to stabilize their operations amidst ongoing market volatility.

According to TrendForce, the health of the notebook market is inextricably linked to supply chain dynamics and corporate demand. Companies that have fostered long-term partnerships with leading memory suppliers and maintain a diverse portfolio, particularly in mid to high-end products, are better positioned to maneuver through these tough times. This evaluation underscores the importance of a solid supply chain and effective channel management strategies in mitigating risks associated with rising costs.

Apple and Lenovo: Models of Resilience

Industry leaders like Apple and Lenovo have demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt to these turbulent conditions. Apple is highlighted as a prime example; despite the unfavorable conditions brought on by rising memory costs, it leverages an integrated supply chain and robust pricing authority to navigate the challenges ahead. Their forward-thinking approach is exemplified by the anticipated launch of a new 12.9-inch notebook in spring 2026 aimed at the entry-to-mid-range market. This strategy should enhance their market penetration and help stabilize their shipment performance, despite the existing economic strains.

Lenovo, as the world’s largest notebook vendor by volume, faces its own set of challenges. While increases in Manufacturer Suggested Retail Prices (MSRPs) might be unavoidable, the company plans to utilize its scale advantages to possibly limit these price hikes, thereby retaining flexibility in cost management. This could allow Lenovo to expand its market share, contrary to prevailing trends in the industry.

Panel Supply Challenges

The surge in memory prices is also expected to affect the demand for notebook panels in 2026. TrendForce predicts a 7.9% year-on-year drop in total notebook panel shipments, which can be attributed to both weakened demand and the rise of OLED technology. LCD panel shipments are set to decline more sharply as manufacturers transition towards OLED offerings.

Even though OLED technology is anticipated to grow, thanks to the increasing adoption of OLED models among brands, the inflated prices of components could slow the momentum for OLED shipments. Higher retail prices may stymie consumer interest, making it a difficult balancing act for manufacturers.

Conclusion

The notebook industry enters 2026 amidst considerable uncertainty, largely driven by rising memory prices and cautious consumer behavior. Companies that can innovate and adapt—like Apple and Lenovo—may find pathways to navigate through these challenges effectively. As the market evolves, continuous analysis and strategic alliances in the supply chain will be crucial for sustaining shipment performance and profitability.

For detailed insights and further reports from TrendForce’s technology analysis, visitors can head to their dedicated website or contact their sales department for in-depth inquiries.