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WSWA SipSource Forecasts for 2024

The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America's (WSWA) SipSource forecasting report for Q4 2024 has once again made headlines, showcasing a striking accuracy rate of 94% for the main All Core Spirits category, excluding Ready-to-Drink (RTD) beverages. This remarkable performance reaffirms the foresight and utility of the SipSource tool in navigating the dynamic spirits industry landscape.

Unparalleled Forecasting Accuracy

The report has reported over 80% accuracy across all eight subcategories of spirits for the year, with four of them surpassing a 90% accuracy threshold. Such precision stems from a robust combination of high-quality SipSource data and the advanced analytical methods employed by their partners at Kearney, making it an invaluable resource for industry participants ranging from wholesalers to retailers.

In its most recent update released in Q3 2024, the performance predictions were close to actual results:

• - All Core Spirits: Projected at -4.57% rolling 12-month growth compared to an actual figure of -4.31%.
• - Brandy/Cognac: Estimated at -9.20%, resulting in a remarkably accurate -9.19%.
• - U.S. Whiskey: Anticipated at -5.57%, with the reality landing at -5.04%.
• - Tequila: Forecasted for a modest growth of 1.91%, concluded at 1.68%.

These accuracy levels represent not just short-term forecasting success but also long-term predictive prowess, with a consistent accuracy rate of 93% maintained throughout 2024 forecasts. This highlights the capacity of SipSource to foresee ongoing and emerging trends influencing the spirits marketplace.

2025 Trends and Challenges Ahead

Looking to the future, the insights for 2025 suggest various exciting opportunities as well as potential hurdles. Tequila, for instance, has proven to be a bright spot in earlier forecasts; however, new tariff threats could introduce volatility in 2025 projections.

On a more positive note, trends indicate that both U.S. Whiskey and Vodka are poised to outperform the broader core spirits market. An increasing consumer preference for “affordable luxury” within Price Tiers 3 and 4 points toward an engaging narrative for these categories as they continue to evolve and capture consumer attention.

Conversely, the outlook for Rum, Cognac, and Scotch appears less favorable. Predictions indicate near double-digit declines across these categories by the close of 2025, with anticipated volume reductions across all pricing tiers making for a tough environment.

“The fascinating results underscore that SipSource is the most precise forecasting tool available in the industry,” remarked Michael Bilello, Executive Vice President, Strategic Communications and Marketing. “As we gear up for 2025, stakeholders in the industry must adapt to changing consumer preferences, alongside navigating external economic pressures, particularly with tariffs on the horizon.”

In conjunction with the new predictions, the SipSource team has also published the eagerly awaited 2024 Year-End Report. Based on its core dataset, this comprehensive analysis delves into market trends, disruptive growth patterns, and outlines expectations for 2025 amid the shifting economic backdrop.

For those looking to explore SipSource firsthand, demos can be scheduled by reaching out to the appropriate contacts. This resource remains unrivaled in its commitment to enabling industry members with decisive, data-backed insights.

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For more information, contact:
Michael Bilello
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (202) 716-4805