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Project44 September Tariff Report

On September 3, 2025, project44 published its monthly Tariff Report, shedding light on the transformative shifts occurring in the U.S. trade environment following new tariff implementations dubbed the "Liberation Day" tariffs. These tariffs, along with reciprocal measures taken by global trade partners, have ushered in a wave of volatility that has caught the attention of supply chain decision-makers. The report emphasizes important findings that detail the current state of exports and shipping capacities, providing a pivotal insight for businesses navigating these changes.

Key Findings from the Report

Declining Exports

The report notes that exports to major trading partners Canada and China have experienced notable reductions from year-to-date measurements. Export figures have plunged by 7.6% to Canada and 1% to China. This unexpected decline signals a possible shift in demand and warrants further evaluation of geopolitical tensions that might be influencing these figures. Companies that relied heavily on these markets may need to reevaluate their strategies to adapt to the ongoing landscape.

Surge in Blank Sailings

One critical development is the reported surge in blank sailings. These refer to the cancellations of cargo ship voyages, either partially or entirely, and are often utilized by shipping carriers to manage capacity amid fluctuating demand. For instance, the route from New York to Colombo registered an alarming increase of 49.2 percentage points in blank sailings year over year. Other significant routes such as Lianyungang to Seattle and Kaohsiung to Long Beach also experienced increases of 27.0 and 22.7 percentage points, respectively. This trend indicates a strategic maneuvering by carriers to mitigate the effects of tariffs while realigning their operational tactics.

Growing Diversification Efforts

In light of the unstable tariff environment, businesses are increasingly diversifying their sourcing strategies. The report notes a modest gain in import share from countries like India and Bangladesh, reflective of ongoing efforts by U.S. companies to reduce dependency on previously favored trade partners. This proactive approach is crucial as companies seek to maintain stability in their supply chains and navigate tariff uncertainties directly affecting their operations.

Legal Uncertainties

The report also touches on the impending legal challenges associated with the "Liberation Day" tariffs. With the conclusion of the Trump Administration nearing, the future of these tariffs remains in limbo as legal disputes are processed through the courts. As the complexities surrounding these tariffs evolve, businesses will have to stay informed about potential shifts that could arise in the coming months, particularly with the possibility of tariff sunset claims in 2029.

Insights from Industry Experts

Lora Cecere, founder of Supply Chain Insights, emphasizes a cautionary perspective regarding the rise in blank sailings. She asserts, "Don't mistake capacity discipline for demand recovery." This statement suggests that the disruption observed in shipping is more about carriers' strategic adjustments rather than a reflection of improved demand within the market. The blank sailings highlight the need for carriers to adapt to current tariff conditions and optimize their shipping plans accordingly.

Looking Ahead

Project44 anticipates a period of stabilization in tariff rates in the near future. As trade agreements continue to evolve, a cautious equilibrium may emerge, provided that geopolitical landscapes remain steady. Nonetheless, it is evident from the report that businesses must remain vigilant, for renewed volatility could arise from shifting legal, political, or policy situations.

For further insights into project44 and its Decision Intelligence platform, please visit project44.com. The platform plays a pivotal role in enhancing visibility over global supply chains with scalable AI-driven solutions.