Insights from MONEX Global Individual Investor Survey December 2025

In a recent survey conducted by Monex Securities from December 4 to December 11, 2025, a total of 743 individual investors participated to share their insights and outlook on the domestic and global stock markets. Notably, this comprehensive survey encompassed regular topics along with special emphasis on investment behaviors surrounding AI-related stocks and how inflation is perceived by the investors.

Main Highlights from the Survey

- Global Stock Market Outlook: Japanese individual investors exhibit stable expectations towards the global stock market, with a report noting an increase in anticipation for the domestic markets in both Japan and the U.S.
- Investment Behavior in AI-Related Stocks: Both Japanese and U.S. investors demonstrate heightened interest in semiconductor stocks driven by AI advancements, though an air of caution reflects their investment approaches.
- Perception of Inflation: Over 80% of Japanese investors reported experiencing strong price increases (level 4 and above), significantly surpassing their U.S. counterparts.
- Key Themes: The newly inaugurated Takagi administration in October 2025 attracted attention towards the defense industry, highlighting a sustained thematic concern among investors.
- ETF Usage: While over 80% of U.S. investors utilize ETFs, only about 40% of Japanese investors do so, underscoring a notable disparity in investment strategies.

Detailed Findings

A. Global Market Outlook and Investment Sentiments

Japan’s individual investors provided a diffusion index (DI) reflecting their expectations for global equity markets, revealing a gentle decline—specifically, a drop from 35 to 33 from the previous year. Comparatively, U.S. investors held steady at a DI of 6.

Regarding the regions expected to exhibit the most promising stock market performance in the next three months, both Japanese and U.S. investors showed a preference for the American markets. Interestingly, the percentage of Japanese investors expecting growth in domestic markets surged significantly, indicating a growing confidence in local resilience.

B. Investment Actions Driven by AI

The influence of AI stocks on significant market movements for the year 2025 was acknowledged by participants. Japanese investors appeared increasingly optimistic about AI's potential, often surpassing their American counterparts in expressing positive sentiment. This indicates a long-term perspective towards AI investments, despite current market caution regarding overheating in stock prices driven by AI hype.

C. Inflation Awareness

The survey results indicated almost 90% of investors from both countries reported a tangible experience of inflation. Yet, a stark contrast surfaced in specific evaluations—over 80% of Japanese investors noted a strong inflationary pressure compared to below 60% in the U.S. Investors in Japan identified domestic equities as primary opportunities amidst inflation, illustrating a preference for accessible investments.

D. U.S. Midterm Elections Impact

As the U.S. braces for midterm elections, the survey revealed limited anticipated changes in investment behaviors. A majority of investors expressed intentions to maintain their current holdings, although a significant proportion of Japanese investors indicated a potential increase in purchases during market adjustments, revealing a proactive investment mindset shaped by external events.

E. Continued Interest in Defense Stocks

There's a noticeable rise in attention towards defense-related stocks post the Takagi administration's inauguration, suggesting a sustained interest driven by policy expectations.

In conclusion, the MONEX survey underscores evolving trends in investment behaviors among individual investors in both countries, marked by heightened engagement with AI technologies, growing concerns around inflation, and the impactful theme of governmental policies. Investors appear to be adapting strategies in an ever-changing global landscape, navigating both opportunity and caution as they forge their investment paths into 2026 and beyond.