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PJM Winter Outlook: Resources Adequate for Electricity Demand

The PJM Interconnection has released its winter outlook, confirming that it has enough resources to meet the electricity demand for 67 million individuals under expected conditions this season. Despite this confirmed operational capacity, PJM faces the ongoing challenge of demand outpacing new generation resource additions.

Capacity Predictions and Performance Needs

For winter 2025-2026, PJM is prepared with a forecasted operational capacity of 180,800 megawatts (MW) to address an anticipated peak electricity demand, which could reach approximately 145,700 MW—potentially a new winter record if reached. During the previous winter, PJM experienced its peak at 143,700 MW on January 22, falling 2,000 MW short of this season's forecast peak. Since last winter, PJM has successfully added around 4,800 MW of new generation capacity, predominantly from solar energy, amounting to around 1,000 MW more operational capacity for the upcoming winter season.

Despite this preparation, PJM anticipates a generation reserve margin of 7,500 MW, after accounting for generation outages and other factors. This figure represents a decrease from the previous year's margin of 8,700 MW. The declining margin raises concerns about future power supply reliability if the pattern of growing demand continues.

Weather Predictions and Reliability Assessments

To estimate the demand for this winter, PJM considers factors like weather forecasts and historical usage trends. According to the National Weather Service, the Atlantic coastal regions can expect a slightly warmer winter, while the Midwest—including Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio—will likely see typical temperatures accompanied by above-average precipitation.

PJM remains committed to ensuring reliability amidst multiple extreme cold weather scenarios, calculating that even under increased demands or lower available generation, the system can handle loads up to 150,300 MW. Still, comparisons to extreme outage events, such as the 46,000 MW losses during Winter Storm Elliott, reveal the risks inherent in this operational strategy. Should such outages recur, they could jeopardize the system's reliability significantly.

Preparations for Winter Challenges

In anticipation of the rigorous winter, PJM and its stakeholders have planned numerous actions outlined in their Cold Weather Preparation Guideline and Checklist. These preparations draw on experiences from previous severe events, including Winter Storms Elliott (2022), Uri (2021), and Enzo (2025). This year, PJM aims to enhance its generator performance data by requesting generators to submit operational thresholds approved by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).

Furthermore, PJM intends to conduct surprise operational tests for generators that have not been utilized for several weeks leading up to winter. This proactive measure is designed to ensure that all resources are functional when the peak demand arrives.

To bolster winter preparations, PJM will double the number of site visits to winterization facilities, promoting best practices and disseminating lessons learned throughout the organization. Regular consultations and operational reviews with natural gas providers will ensure that PJM aligns generator performance with demand requirements through the season.

Looking Ahead: Priorities and Challenges

As the winter looms, PJM emphasizes the critical role of generator performance in maintaining a stable power supply. September discussions with generation owners have focused on fortifying units for effective winter operations. Continuous dialogue is essential to understand challenges such as gas scheduling and generator limitations.

PJM Interconnection, established in 1927, plays a vital role in ensuring the reliability of high-voltage electric systems across 13 states and the District of Columbia. With an extensive network of transmission lines and a competitive electricity market, PJM helps deliver annual savings ranging between $3.2 billion to $4 billion throughout its service area.

In conclusion, while PJM is prepared for the upcoming winter season, the trajectory of rising electricity demands and narrowing reserve margins presents ongoing challenges that require vigilant management and strategic responses moving forward.