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US M&A Activity Surge: A Forecast for 2026

The landscape of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the United States is set for a transformative acceleration as we approach 2026. Recent insights from the EY-Parthenon October 2025 Deal Barometer reveal a promising outlook for dealmakers, with expectations of significant growth in both corporate and private equity transactions. This newfound momentum, moving beyond mere recovery, highlights the strategic role of artificial intelligence (AI) in reshaping business operations.

An Overview of US Deal Volume Growth

The current predictions state that total US deal volume for transactions exceeding $100 million is anticipated to grow by 3% in 2026. This follows an impressive forecasted rise of 9% for 2025. Notably, the deal value has surged by 36% year to date when compared to 2024, largely influenced by an increase in substantial transactions. As the shift in market dynamics continues, larger deals are expected to dominate the landscape further.

The Impact of Private Equity

A particularly noteworthy trend is the escalation in private equity (PE) deals, which are projected to expand at a faster rate than corporate M&A. Fueled by heightened optimism among sponsors regarding exit activities, PE transactions are set to see a more than 5% growth in 2026, on the heels of an 8% increase in 2025. This trend indicates that dealmakers are now more equipped and confident in navigating the complexities of the economic landscape.

The Role of AI in Transformation

Mitch Berlin, EY Americas Vice Chair of EY-Parthenon, underscores that contemporary CEOs are no longer waiting for global stability before making moves. The current focus is directed towards acquiring advanced capabilities—primarily centered on AI and next-generation technologies. These strategic shifts aim to fortify businesses against uncertainties while steering portfolio transformations effectively.

Sector-specific Activity

In terms of sectoral activity, technology, financial services, and life sciences have emerged as leading contributors, showcasing a robust push to integrate AI-enabled capabilities into their frameworks. Such advancements not only promise operational efficiency but also future-proof the organizations against competitive threats.

The third quarter of 2025 experienced a rebound in deal activities following a sluggish start, attributed to policy uncertainties. However, favorable credit conditions and soaring CEO confidence catalyzed a 9% rise in US deal volume compared to 2024, with projections of a continuous upward trend heading into 2026.

Resilience Amid Economic Uncertainty

Despite ongoing economic fluctuations, the general outlook for M&A appears robust. According to the EY-Parthenon economic outlook, the US real GDP is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. Although the unemployment rate may gradually increase, the economic landscape remains supportive of deal-making activities, with the Federal Reserve hinting at possible rate cuts to ease financing conditions further.

As companies gear up for M&A activities, they must adopt longer planning timelines while modeling the potential impacts of factors like tariffs and workforce costs. These strategies are essential for maintaining deal certainty and expediting closure.

Conclusion

With the accelerating tempo of M&A activities bolstered by strategic transformations and the advent of AI technologies, 2026 is poised to witness a remarkable chapter in the US deal-making narrative. The EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer serves as a critical tool in forecasting future trends, equipping business executives with valuable insights to navigate the evolving landscape effectively. As organizations strategize for the future, embracing innovation and resilience may hold the key to unlocking unprecedented growth in the realm of M&A.