S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Shows Slower Housing Gains in June 2025

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Trends in June 2025

In August 2025, the S&P Dow Jones Indices released the June 2025 results for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, previously known as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The report suggests a notable shift in the housing landscape, with U.S. national home prices rising by only 1.9% year-over-year, marking the slowest growth rate since the summer of 2023.

Nicholas Godec, Head of Fixed Income Tradables at SP Dow Jones Indices, described June's results as a clear transition within the housing market. "The modest annual gain of 1.9% conceals substantial fluctuations, as the first half saw a decline of 0.6% in home prices, subsequently mitigated by a last-minute surge with a 2.5% increase in the latter half of the period. This indicates a significant change point for the housing sector around early 2025."

Significantly, the geographical landscape of housing appreciation has transformed dramatically. The once-beloved markets of Tampa and Phoenix have witnessed decreases of 2.4% and 0.1%, respectively, while New York has emerged as a leader with a substantial 7.0% annual increase. Following closely are Chicago with 6.1% and Cleveland rising by 4.5%. Godec commented, "This inversion from post-pandemic trends highlights a shifting narrative, as traditional industrial centers are now leading rather than Sun Belt regions that thrived during the pandemic boom. Tampa's slump represents the most significant dive among tracked metros."

Adding to the complexity, inflation trends illustrate that home prices are no longer escalating in tandem with consumer price increases. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% from June 2024 to June 2025, further indicating homeowners are experiencing a decline in real wealth over the previous year. Given the historical context where housing prices had greatly exceeded inflation rates during the pandemic, this new trend signals a market recalibrating to a more balanced state.

An examination of the monthly trends reveals a market caught in a stalemate between seasonal trends and intrinsic weaknesses, as evidenced by a mere growth of 0.1% in the U.S. National Index before seasonal adjustments. However, seasonal adjustments showed a decline of 0.3%, prompting concerns about underlying housing demand.

Looking into the future, the current housing cycle seems to gravitate towards more sustainable growth that aligns with broader economic trends rather than the inflated appreciation seen in 2020-2022. Godec summarises the perspective, asserting that while the elimination of extraordinary pandemic-era gains may seem detrimental, it likely sets a healthier path moving forward.

As the report reveals, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all U.S. census divisions, registered an annual increase of 1.9% for June, slightly down from the previous month’s 2.3% rise. The 10-City Composite experienced a 2.6% increase, marking a decline from the 3.4% rise noted in May. Similarly, the 20-City Composite exhibited an annual gain of 2.1%, down from 2.8% in May.

The overarching trends reveal a changing dynamic in the national housing market, emphasizing that while some regions thrive, others face declines. Investors and homeowners alike should prepare for a multifaceted market landscape as inflation and regional shifts redefine housing opportunities across the United States.