The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index Shows Positive Growth in August 2026
In August 2026, the Employment Trends Index (ETI) from The Conference Board experienced an increase, rising to 108.53 from a revised figure of 107.76 in July. This index serves as a leading indicator for payroll employment, hinting at future job growth when it trends upward. Economic Data Scientist Associate Conrad Qi commented on the significance of this uptick, noting it reflects a 2.0% improvement compared to the same month the previous year.
While the components of the ETI showed a mixed performance for the month, all eight indicators contributed positively on average over the past half-year. This supports a forecast of continued job growth, which follows a report of 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added in August. The most notable improvements were seen in aspects related to part-time work and job availability perceptions.
A key change was the reduction in the involuntary part-time work ratio, which fell to 16.2% from 17.4%. This decline signifies reduced underemployment. Additionally, there was a drop in the percentage of consumers reporting that jobs are hard to obtain, which decreased to 19.5% from 21.7%. These factors collectively suggest that people view job availability as improving.
Other positive developments in the employment sector included an increase of 6,800 in temporary help services in August as well as slight rises in industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales. These indicators contribute to a robust employment landscape, promoting optimism about ongoing job creation.
However, initial claims for unemployment insurance saw the most substantial negative impact on the ETI, indicating a modest increase in layoff activity, even if claims remained below their June figures. Moreover, the percentage of small firms struggling to fill open positions dropped slightly, now at 35% in August, yet this level is still considered elevated compared to historical data. In the same vein, job openings dropped by 26,000, reflecting a downward trend to 7.24 million.
The eight components forming the Employment Trends Index are: the consumer confidence survey responses about job availability, initial claims for unemployment insurance data, the percentage of firms with unfilled positions, temporary-help employment statistics, the involuntary part-time worker ratio, job openings data, industrial production figures, and real manufacturing and trade sales. Each of these contributes to the understanding of employment trends and forecasts in the U.S. economy.
The ETI is published monthly by The Conference Board, typically on the Monday following the Labor Department's Employment Situation report release every Friday. This steady flow of data provides essential insights for strategizing job creation and economic growth efforts across the country. For further details on the Employment Trends Index, interested parties can find technical notes and more information on The Conference Board's official website.
While the components of the ETI showed a mixed performance for the month, all eight indicators contributed positively on average over the past half-year. This supports a forecast of continued job growth, which follows a report of 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added in August. The most notable improvements were seen in aspects related to part-time work and job availability perceptions.
A key change was the reduction in the involuntary part-time work ratio, which fell to 16.2% from 17.4%. This decline signifies reduced underemployment. Additionally, there was a drop in the percentage of consumers reporting that jobs are hard to obtain, which decreased to 19.5% from 21.7%. These factors collectively suggest that people view job availability as improving.
Other positive developments in the employment sector included an increase of 6,800 in temporary help services in August as well as slight rises in industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales. These indicators contribute to a robust employment landscape, promoting optimism about ongoing job creation.
However, initial claims for unemployment insurance saw the most substantial negative impact on the ETI, indicating a modest increase in layoff activity, even if claims remained below their June figures. Moreover, the percentage of small firms struggling to fill open positions dropped slightly, now at 35% in August, yet this level is still considered elevated compared to historical data. In the same vein, job openings dropped by 26,000, reflecting a downward trend to 7.24 million.
The eight components forming the Employment Trends Index are: the consumer confidence survey responses about job availability, initial claims for unemployment insurance data, the percentage of firms with unfilled positions, temporary-help employment statistics, the involuntary part-time worker ratio, job openings data, industrial production figures, and real manufacturing and trade sales. Each of these contributes to the understanding of employment trends and forecasts in the U.S. economy.
The ETI is published monthly by The Conference Board, typically on the Monday following the Labor Department's Employment Situation report release every Friday. This steady flow of data provides essential insights for strategizing job creation and economic growth efforts across the country. For further details on the Employment Trends Index, interested parties can find technical notes and more information on The Conference Board's official website.
Topics General Business）
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