Farmer Sentiment Plummets Amid Rising Economic Concerns in 2026

In a striking shift, the sentiment among farmers saw a notable decrease at the start of 2026. According to the latest reading from the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, there was a significant 23-point drop from December, yielding a total score of 113 in January. This downturn reflects a growing concern regarding both current agricultural conditions and future prospects in the U.S. agricultural sector.

The barometer's findings indicate a drop across several indices. Notably, the Current Conditions Index fell by 19 points, settling at 109, while the Future Expectations Index tumbled 25 points to a reading of 115. The most alarming shift was noted in the long-term outlook, with the index measuring expectations of agriculture over the next five years reaching its lowest level since September 2024.

Farmers expressed heightened fears regarding agricultural exports, marking a change from the previous month. The survey, conducted from January 12 to 16, coincided with the USDA's release of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. During this period, half of the surveyed farmers reported that their financial situations had deteriorated compared to a year ago.

Looking ahead, a larger number of farmers anticipate worsening conditions in the upcoming year. Approximately 30% of respondents expect their financial performance to decline, in contrast to just 20% who foresee any improvement. This more cautious outlook is evident as the Farm Capital Investment Index dropped 11 points in January, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. Alarmingly, only 4% of producers plan to increase their machinery purchases over the next year.

Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator, noted the increasing financial strain among producers due to higher operating loan requirements driven by unpaid debts carried from the previous year. In fact, 21% of participants expect their operating loans to rise compared to last year, indicating a distressing trend that has escalated steadily over the past few years. This situation aligns with producers’ intensifying concerns regarding their financial sustainability in agriculture.

Moreover, the pessimism surrounding U.S. agricultural exports thrived. When queried about the future, 16% of the surveyed farmers anticipated a decline in exports over the next five years, a rise from just 5% the previous month. Corn and soybean farmers exhibit even greater anxiety. Specifically, 21% of these producers foresee a downturn in soybean exports, up from 13% in December, amidst escalating competition from Brazil.

Despite these significant concerns, respondents projected a stable outlook for short-term farmland values, as evidenced by an unchanged Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index of 117 in January. However, the Long-Term Farmland Value Index saw a notable decline of 14 points, dropping to 152, suggesting a cautious view influenced by alternative investments, net farm income, and fluctuating interest rates.

The survey also inquired how farmers plan to utilize the payments from the recently announced Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. Over half indicated that the payments would assist in debt repayment, while 25% planned to allocate funds toward enhancing working capital. The remaining respondents suggested smaller allocations for family living expenses or investment in farm machinery.

Overall, the survey highlights a worrying trend in farmers’ broader outlook on the U.S. economy. When asked whether they believed that the U.S. is moving in the