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New ETC Report on Energy Productivity

On October 15, 2025, the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) unveiled a pivotal report titled "Energy Productivity: Increasing Efficiency in an Expanded, Electrified Energy System." This comprehensive document outlines a significant opportunity for the global economy, suggesting that improvements in energy productivity could allow the world to double its GDP by 2050 while simultaneously reducing overall energy demand by an impressive 24%.

As global prosperity continues to rise, the demand for energy services is expected to intensify, encompassing areas such as mobility, heating, cooling, and industrial production. However, the ETC report emphasizes that advancements in energy productivity can facilitate expanded energy services with minimal energy consumption, thereby dramatically decreasing reliance on fossil fuels.

What is Energy Productivity?

Energy productivity is defined as the economic output (GDP) generated per unit of energy consumed. The report highlights the potential for integrating electrification into transportation, heating, and cooking processes within buildings. Upgrading to more efficient appliances and adopting a smarter use of materials can lead to considerable improvements in energy productivity. These changes would enable the delivery of enhanced energy services while simultaneously lowering costs and minimizing the utilization of land, water, and other natural resources.

To capitalize on this opportunity, governments, businesses, and consumers must prioritize the transition from outdated, inefficient fossil fuel systems to advanced electric systems that harness modern technologies. Failing to seize this moment could result in increased energy demands and higher costs for living, travel, and goods production.

Driving Prosperity with Less Energy Consumption

The ETC report illustrates that energy services are vital for fostering prosperity. By 2050, car mileage could increase by 70%, air travel by 150%, and demand for refrigerated floor space could rise by 150%, along with significant expansions in aluminum, petrochemical products, cement, and steel. While artificial intelligence (AI) may enhance efficiency in various sectors, its rapid growth and the associated energy consumption from data centers could present unpredictable energy demands over the next 25 years.

Despite these challenges, the potential to improve energy productivity significantly exists over the coming decades. The report suggests that we could meet the demand for increased energy services using 24% less final energy and 36% less primary energy than we do today.

Key Opportunities for Enhancing Energy Productivity

Electrification vs. Fossil Fuels:
Electric vehicles (EVs) are estimated to be three times more efficient than gasoline-powered cars, which convert only 25% of their energy into motion. Projections indicate that by 2025, EV sales will exceed 20 million, accounting for 25% of new cars sold worldwide. Furthermore, heat pumps produce 3-4 times more heat per energy unit than gas boilers, with sales of heat pumps surpassing those of gas boilers in key markets, such as the U.S., by 30%. Additionally, cooking with electricity can be 4-5 times more efficient than traditional biomass methods.

Energy-efficient Appliances:
Transitioning to modern, energy-efficient appliances can potentially reduce global energy demand by up to 10% by 2050, thereby averting the need for nearly 30,000 TWh of additional electricity generation (the total amount of global electricity consumed in 2024).

Smarter Use of Materials and Recycling:
Enhancing material efficiency and increasing recycling practices could decrease energy needs by 44% for chemicals and plastics, 33% for cement, and 27% for steel even with rising overall demand. For instance, producing aluminum from recycled scrap requires 90% less energy compared to new metal production.

A Unique Chance to Accelerate Energy Efficiency Improvements

At COP28 in 2023, nations committed to doubling the annual rate of energy productivity improvement from 2% to 4% by 2030. The ETC report lays out a viable pathway for countries to achieve this ambitious goal over the next twenty years. By 2050, as the electrification of economies reaches its peak, the rate of improvement may stabilize around 2%, while final energy demand is expected to rise in support of increased energy services and GDP growth.

This dynamic underlines the crucial need to explore every opportunity available for enhancing energy productivity and avoiding the stagnation of fossil fuel systems that could lead to long-term costs.

Conclusion

The transition towards a competitive, electrified future is driven primarily by electrification and efficiency. The latest ETC report presents verifiable information indicating that smarter electric technologies and efficiency initiatives across all sectors can yield greater outputs with less energy consumption—potentially doubling global prosperity and reducing energy demand by 25%. This urgent call to action underscores the necessity for businesses, governments, and consumers to embrace the technologies available today to achieve our full energy potential.

The Energy Transitions Commission stands as a global coalition committed to reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century. This report reflects the collective vision of its members, emphasizing that while it does not represent unanimous agreement, it serves as a crucial guide for future energy policies and strategies.

For more insights into the findings, read the full report on the ETC's website.