#China #Guangdong #Guangzhou #GDP Growth #Economic Policy

Guangdong's Economic Growth Outlook for 2024

Guangdong province stands poised for an impressive economic milestone, with projections indicating its GDP could surpass 14 trillion yuan by 2024. This significant achievement will secure its status as China's top economy for an astonishing 36 consecutive years. The recent government work report, delivered by the governor of Guangdong during the Third Session of the 14th Guangdong Provincial People's Congress, highlighted this optimistic forecast.

In 2024, Guangdong’s total imports and exports are anticipated to increase by 9.8% year-on-year to exceed 9 trillion yuan, establishing new records both for the province and the nation. The data underscores the province’s robust economic framework, particularly within the manufacturing sector, which has shown impressive growth despite challenges in other areas.

Key Drivers of Economic Growth

A major contributor to Guangdong’s economic vitality is its strategic position in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, promoting extensive trade and cooperation. This region has seen the establishment of the Guangdong-Macao In-depth Cooperation Zone, designed to foster further development in the area. In 2024, Guangdong hosted two sessions of the Canton Fair, attracting roughly 500,000 international buyers—this is a historic high which highlights the province’s importance as a trading hub.

Guangzhou and Shenzhen have been selected as pilot cities enabling wholly foreign-owned hospitals, providing foreign entities more opportunities to invest in healthcare. Moreover, the opening of Amazon Global Selling’s first innovation center in the Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone aims to bolster Chinese e-commerce companies’ global reach.

Industrial Resilience and Innovation

The strength of Guangdong's economy is also reflected in its industrial sector. In 2024, the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises in the province is expected to increase by 4.2% year-on-year. Manufacturing, particularly the production of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and smartphones, has played a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth—approximately 25% of new energy vehicles, 40% of industrial robots, and 40% of smartphones manufactured in China originate from Guangdong.

The province's research and development investment is currently at about 3.6%, underlining its commitment to innovation. With roughly 77,000 high-tech enterprises and six national manufacturing innovation centers, Guangdong has consistently ranked first in the country for overall regional innovation capacity.

Employment and Public Revenue

Economic activities have also led to substantial job creation, with urban areas in Guangdong generating approximately 1.43 million new jobs, surpassing the central government’s annual target of 1.1 million. Additionally, 43.86 million workers from outside the province have maintained stable employment, contributing to the social stability of the region.

Guangdong’s local general public budget revenue has reached 1.35 trillion yuan, marking its first-place ranking nationwide for 34 years. The province’s central-level tax revenue leads the nation, supporting public services and infrastructure development. Guangdong’s foreign trade scale constitutes over 20% of the national total, significantly influencing the country’s economic growth.

Innovative Infrastructure Development

In 2024, several key infrastructure projects were completed to further enhance connectivity within the Greater Bay Area. Notable developments such as the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Link and the Huangmaohai Sea-Crossing Passage are expected to facilitate smoother transportation routes, fostering greater economic collaboration.

In summary, the province of Guangdong is on the verge of achieving spectacular economic growth in 2024, primarily driven by its resilient industrial base, strategic innovations, and robust foreign trade activities. These factors collectively position Guangdong as an enduring leader in China’s tapestry of economic development.