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Concerns Over Online Election Prediction Markets

As the 2026 midterm elections approach, a recent survey commissioned by the Partnership for Large Election Jurisdictions (PLEJ) has shed light on serious reservations among likely voters regarding online election prediction markets. Attracting nearly $200 million in wagers, these markets are perceived by over half of surveyed individuals as detrimental to the democratic process.

According to the poll of 1,000 U.S. adults, commissioned between July 16 and July 19, a significant 75% of likely midterm voters expressed concern that prediction markets may contribute to confusion surrounding election outcomes. Furthermore, the data reveals that 60% of these voters believe that such markets fuel the spread of inaccurate electoral information. Strikingly, 45% of participants worry that individuals involved in prediction markets might possess insider knowledge regarding election results.

The lack of understanding of how prediction markets operate is alarming. Nearly 40% of respondents mistakenly think that the odds reported by these markets reflect advance counts of votes or official projections from election authorities. In reality, prediction market prices are based solely on participant activity and expectations, not actual votes or certified results.

Given the potential ramifications, the survey highlights a notable statistic: 38% of respondents stated that discord between official election results and prediction market odds could undermine their confidence in the electoral outcome. This sentiment underscores a significant risk as these markets blend with the broader election information landscape.

Carolina Lopez, Executive Director of PLEJ, commented on the findings, stating, "While prediction markets have found a place in the election information ecosystem, it's crucial to understand that they do not constitute official election outcomes. What happened during the Los Angeles mayoral primary could be a precursor to similar situations nationwide. Large election jurisdictions must prepare to address public confusion effectively, ensuring clarity in how votes are gathered, counted, and certified."

Despite the unease toward prediction markets, trust in election officials remains relatively strong among voters. Two-thirds of respondents expressed high trust in their state election officials (64%) and local election officials (61%). In contrast, fewer than one in four voters indicated they had high trust in news media, social media, or prediction markets when seeking reliable election information.

These findings emphasize the need for voters to differentiate between speculation in prediction markets and verified official information. Lopez added, "With speculation, projections, and prediction markets vying for the public’s attention, it's paramount that voters hear directly from the state and local officials entrusted with conducting elections."

To mitigate the impact of confusion surrounding prediction markets, elected officials can implement strategic measures aimed at improving public understanding of the electoral process:

1. Create Clear, Accessible Information: Develop informative resources, including written, video, and graphical presentations, explaining the lifecycle of ballots—from casting to certification—and detailing the safeguards inherent in each phase.

2. Monitor Information Trends: Establish systems to track emerging questions and claims, enabling officials to swiftly address confusion with accurate and authoritative responses.

3. Communicate Openly and Frequently: Maintain an open dialogue with local, state, and federal partners, along with media and community stakeholders, to coordinate information dissemination and respond to voter inquiries in real time.

These proactive measures serve to clarify the distinction between prediction market activity and the official processes that govern election outcomes. As we move closer to the midterm elections, it is crucial for voters to remain informed and confident in the electoral system.

In summary, the results of this PLEJ-commissioned survey reveal that as prediction markets gain popularity, the focus must shift towards providing transparent and accurate information to voters. Ensuring their understanding—and distinguishing it clearly from market speculation—is vital to uphold the integrity of election outcomes in the United States.