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Global M&A Trends for 2025-2026: Insights from Capstone Partners and IMAP

In late January 2026, Capstone Partners, a prominent investment banking firm focused on the middle market, released its annual Trends in Global M&A Survey alongside its partner IMAP, a global advisory firm specializing in mergers and acquisitions. This extensive report is a compilation of insights gathered from over 100 M&A advisors spanning 54 countries, reflecting the current landscape and expectations for the upcoming year.

Key Insights from the Survey

The survey, conducted between November 10 and November 24, 2025, provides a unique lens into the thoughts and expectations of M&A advisors at a critical juncture for the market. Here are some noteworthy findings:

Geopolitical Influences on M&A

For the first time, advisors ranked geopolitical factors as the primary concern affecting client operations in 2026. This represents a shift from the last three years when inflation held that top spot. The ongoing geopolitical climate has shifted advisors' focus away from inflation, highlighting the need for careful navigation in a rapidly changing environment.

Optimism in Deal Flow

Despite a slight decline in the optimism surrounding deal activity—72.6% of respondents expect an increase in M&A transactions in 2026, a decrease of 6.4% year-over-year—the general sentiment remains hopeful. This enduring optimism is attributed to interest rate cuts across North America, Europe, and parts of Asia, which have helped maintain a positive outlook in private equity M&A.

Challenges Ahead

The survey illustrated that the main hurdles for M&A deals in 2026 will be market volatility and economic uncertainty, with 56.6% of advisors citing these challenges. Additionally, trade uncertainties and tariff policies are expected to restrict deal-making, with 40.6% of participants indicating this as a significant concern.

Shifts in Deal Preferences

Advisors noted a trend where buyers are increasingly selective about their M&A pursuits, often favoring companies with solid financial visibility. An overwhelming 66% of investment bankers indicated that recurring revenue streams will serve as a critical factor when evaluating potential acquisitions.

Pricing and Valuation Expectations

While a quarter of advisors believe that transaction multiples will see a moderate increase next year, many (66%) anticipate stability in these metrics. Recognizing the pivotal role realistic deal valuations play in successfully closing transactions, advisors emphasized that inflated valuation expectations could prove detrimental in the negotiation process.

Implications for Businesses

This survey’s findings are not just academic; they carry significant implications for business owners considering M&A as a strategy for growth or exit. The report underscores the importance of aligning with advisors who have a keen understanding of current trends and market dynamics. Additionally, it sheds light on the urgency for middle market business owners to prepare adequately for potential liquidity events, emphasizing realistic expectations for valuations and market conditions.

Conclusion

Capstone Partners and IMAP’s survey offers a comprehensive look into the M&A landscape, revealing challenges and strategic considerations for advisors and businesses alike as they look toward 2026. The findings highlight the need for adaptability in a complex market, and while optimism remains, the importance of being cognizant of external factors will be key to navigating the M&A process successfully. For those exploring M&A opportunities, leveraging these insights can guide informed decision-making and prepare for potential shifts in the market.