#United States #Economic Growth #Omaha #Carson Group #Animal Spirits

Carson Group Predicts Continued Bull Market in 2025

As we move further into 2025, the Carson Group's Investment Research team is optimistic about the U.S. economy's trajectory, anticipating that monetary and fiscal policy changes will create an encouraging environment for both markets and economic growth. According to their recent report titled "Animal Spirits," the potential for economic expansion is significant, and it is essential for investors to remain vigilant about the unfolding policy landscape.

Positive Economic Fundamentals

Ryan Detrick, the Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, highlights several key factors supporting this optimistic outlook. He emphasizes that the economy is currently strong, underpinned by robust income growth, improved household financial health, and recent gains in labor productivity. Despite ongoing challenges stemming from previous high interest rates and inflation, Detrick insists that these issues should not lead to pessimism. In fact, he believes that market dynamics tend to override negative noise, and this trend will likely persist throughout 2025.

The report suggests that economic momentum is set to continue, thanks to favorable policies from the Federal Reserve aimed at normalizing interest rates. This aligns with a pro-growth fiscal strategy that boosts national sentiment—a concept referred to as "animal spirits." These spirits encompass the motivations that drive individuals and businesses to innovate and invest, creating a potentially powerful positive force for the economy and financial markets in the year ahead.

Navigating the Challenges Ahead

While the foundation appears strong, Carson Group acknowledges the presence of risks that investors must navigate. Sonu Varghese, the Vice President and Global Macro Strategist, points out that uncertainties loom regarding interest rate cuts and the forthcoming administration's fiscal policies, including tax structures and trade tariffs. He emphasizes that understanding these complex factors is crucial as they could impact the market's trajectory.

Despite these uncertainties, Carson Group asserts that the strengths of the economy overshadow its weaknesses. With expectations of easier Federal Reserve policies and potential tax reductions, the areas of opportunity are viewed as outweighing the threats posed by tariff-related uncertainties.

Key Findings from the 2025 Market Outlook

• - Carson Group is bullish on equities, anticipating an S&P 500 total return of 12-15% in 2025, buoyed by an economic environment conducive to margin growth and earnings expansion.
• - The firm maintains a favorable stance towards U.S. equities compared to other developed markets, citing a stronger growth outlook.
• - Although uncertainty surrounds interest rates, there is an expectation for moderate declines, making bonds more appealing while also suggesting diversification beyond bonds.
• - The housing sector remains a weak spot, heavily influenced by interest rates and affordability, although it is not expected to drive the economy into recession.

A Strategic Approach to Investing

Carson Group champions a strategic approach to long-term investments, underscoring the importance of careful decision-making in a changing environment. They aim to guide investors in making informed choices while remaining focused on achieving meaningful financial objectives and personal fulfillment.

For those interested in delving deeper into Carson Group's insights, the 2025 Market Outlook report "Animal Spirits" is available for download on the Carson Group's website. Additionally, podcast episode 118 of "Facts vs. Feelings" will be released on January 15, 2025, allowing investors to engage with the latest financial trends and analysis.

Carson Group’s mission is to provide advisors and clients with a robust ecosystem to enhance their financial journey. With over $40 billion in assets under management, they continue to serve a vast network of clients across the United States, positioning themselves as a leading partner in financial growth.