#New York #US #Economic Growth #Business Investment #US Leading Index

US Economic Activity Report: June 2026

In June 2026, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) revealed a decline of 0.2%, bringing the index down to 99.1. This marks a partial reversal from previous gains made in May and April, where the LEI had recorded increases of 0.1% and, respectively. Notably, despite this decline, the LEI's performance over the first half of 2026 presents a more stable scenario compared to the significant drop of 1.1% witnessed during the last six months of 2025.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, the Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, provided insights into the LEI’s performance. She pointed out that certain components of the LEI had minimal changes, highlighting a strong positive impact from the yield spread and some positive contributions from financial components. However, these were overshadowed by deteriorating consumer confidence and a reduction in building permits across most sectors.

Despite the recent downturn, it's encouraging to note that the LEI's growth metrics over the past six and twelve months have remained stable, albeit negative. Consumer spending is showing signs of weakening; however, robust investments in artificial intelligence are expected to bolster economic activity. Additionally, improvements in inflation are prompting the Conference Board to revise its 2026 GDP growth forecast upward from 1.8% to 1.9%.

Moreover, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) displayed a modest increase of 0.2% in June, reaching a total of 114.6. This follows another rise of 0.2% in May, resulting in a cumulative H1 2026 growth rate of 0.4%, which is an improvement compared to the preceding six months. The components of the CEI—covering payroll employment, personal income, and industrial production—are vital indicators utilized to assess economic recessions in the US, and all recorded positive contributions in June.

Additionally, the Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) remained steady at 120.5 in June, following a slight decrease of 0.1% in the previous month. Impressively, the LAG recorded a significant growth of 1.1% over the first half of 2026, a considerable rebound from the previous decline seen in the latter half of 2025.

The next update on these economic metrics is scheduled for August 20, 2026. As the market navigates fluctuating conditions, continued monitoring of these indices will provide essential insights into the trajectory of the US economy moving forward.

Summary of Indexes

The following table summarizes the changes in the composite indexes for June 2026:


This data indicates a challenging but potentially stabilizing environment, where business investment, particularly in AI, is seen as a key driver for future economic performance.