#Japan #Minato #JEPS #FIT Non-Fossil #BNE

A Collaborative Venture to Forecast FIT Non-fossil Certificate Prices

As we collectively move toward a greener future, staying informed about renewable energy market trends is increasingly important. In this light, two power procurement companies, Japan Electric Power Procurement Solutions (JEPS) and Beyond Next Energy (BNE), have teamed up to devise a long-term prediction strategy for the prices of FIT (Feed-In Tariff) non-fossil certificates, specifically until the year 2050.

Understanding FIT Non-fossil Certificates

FIT non-fossil certificates are vital in the renewable energy landscape, reflecting the environmental value associated with reducing CO2 emissions and evidencing the energy’s renewable origin. Currently, the supply of these certificates exceeds demand, keeping the price steadfast at a floor rate of 0.4 yen per kWh. However, recent buyer engagement indicates a surge in demand, hinting that the balance could shift in the near future, making forecast strategies even more crucial.

The Need for Price Forecasting

In a recent committee convened on September 30, 2025, proposals were made to re-evaluate the pricing bounds of FIT non-fossil certificates. The proposed adjustments suggest raising the floor price or reconsidering the ceiling of 4 yen per kWh. Such changes may eventually lead to a scenario where demand overcomes supply, thus escalating prices significantly. Understanding these potential fluctuations is essential for stakeholders within the sector.

Methodology Behind the Price Forecast

The method employed for predicting the future prices of FIT non-fossil certificates rests on two main aspects:
1. Decarbonization Value: This refers to the environmental worth derived from avoiding and reducing CO2 emissions.
2. Renewable Attribute Value: Additional value attributable to being derived from renewable energy sources.

By synthesizing data and insights from these two critical areas, JEPS and BNE aim to deliver a comprehensive and evidence-based forecast of future FIT non-fossil certificate prices.

Potential Applications for the Forecast

The proposed forecasting service finds applications across various segments, particularly for renewable energy producers and corporate energy buyers.

Renewable Energy Producers and Retail Electricity Providers

The forecast will empower these entities to present informed arguments regarding the advantages of Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to their clients—enabling them to position long-term fixed pricing and environmental value through virtual corporate PPAs more effectively. Specifically, it can reinforce the comparative advantages of these frameworks over traditional procurement methods.

Corporate Buyers of Renewable Energy

Businesses aiming to procure renewable energy can leverage this forecasting to review and potentially restructure their acquisition strategies. For instance, they can evaluate whether to shift from purchasing FIT non-fossil certificates to signing long-term physical or virtual corporate PPAs based on anticipated price trends. Combining historical data with market predictions enhances the decision-making process, facilitating smarter, more strategic planning.

Service Delivery and Pricing

For those interested in accessing the price forecasts, JEPS and BNE are offering a special promotional price until the end of January next year. The service breakdown includes:

• - Long-term price forecast for FIT non-fossil certificates at 50,000 yen (excluding tax).
• - Comprehensive packages including the rationale and logic for price predictions along with the long-term forecast for 500,000 yen (excluding tax).

Data updates will occur quarterly, ensuring that clients have the most current information available to inform their strategies.

How to Reach Us

For further inquiries and detailed information, please don’t hesitate to reach out:

• - Call: 03-5843-8696 (Main Line)
• - Email: [email protected]

Company Profiles

Japan Electric Power Procurement Solutions (JEPS)

• - CEO: Yuto Takahashi
• - Location: Minato, Tokyo
• - Established: April 2024
• - Capital: 9,000,000 yen
• - Services Offered: Power procurement consulting, renewable energy acquisition consulting, forecasting of fuel adjustment costs, electricity billing assistance, power company switch support.
• - Website: jepsolution.jp

Beyond Next Energy (BNE)

• - CEO: Koichi Yamaguchi
• - Location: Minato, Tokyo
• - Established: May 2020
• - Capital: 10,000,000 yen
• - Services Offered: Long-term price forecasting for FIT non-fossil certificates, analysis of electricity market trends, insights on regulatory developments in energy, and comprehensive consulting on renewable energy and energy storage.
• - Website: beyondnextenergy.jp