Surge in Passport Power Amidst Global Decline in Peace Levels

Passport Power Doubles as Global Peace Declines

The recent 20th anniversary edition of the Henley Passport Index demonstrates a striking development in international mobility. It indicates that the average passport now grants individuals access to 108 destinations without the need for a visa. This marks a substantial increase from the mere 58 destinations available back when the Index was introduced in 2006, highlighting the marked progress in global mobility over the past two decades.

Contrasting sharply with the positive trends observed in passport power, the 20th edition of the Global Peace Index presents a grim reality. It reports that the world is currently witnessing the highest incidence of state-based conflicts since the last global conflict, World War II. There has been a 12-year decline in global peacefulness, with statistics revealing that 119 countries are less peaceful today compared to 2008 and 103 nations have been engaged in external conflicts within the last five years. Such developments suggest a complex interplay between mobility and societal stability.

As millions of travelers prepare for the peak summer holiday season in the Northern Hemisphere, the data from the July 2026 Henley Passport Index, based on exclusive insights from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), indicates that international mobility is evolving despite an increasingly challenging geopolitical landscape.

Currently, Singapore retains its position as the world’s most influential passport, providing access to 192 destinations without a visa. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has made significant strides, climbing three positions to tie with Japan and South Korea for second place, each granting access to 188 destinations.

In terms of rankings, the United Kingdom has risen to the 6th position after achieving visa-free access to countries like China and Malawi, while Canada has moved up to 7th. In contrast, the United States remains in 10th place, standing out as one of the few top-tier passports requiring a visa to visit China.

Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, the Chairman of Henley Partners and the creator of this Index, underscored the importance of passport power as a measure of a country's geopolitical capital. He articulated that passport power reflects more than mere peace and prosperity; it embodies nations that other countries wish to partner with for trade, investment, security, and cooperation.

Over the past two decades, passport power has experienced significant fluctuations, resulting in a widening global mobility gap from 118 destinations to a record 170. Afghanistan continues to sit at the bottom of the list. The UAE showcased remarkable growth, adding unprecedented visa-free access to 153 destinations. In contrast, Bolivia is notably the only country to have seen a decline in travel freedom over these two decades, losing the ability to access six destinations without a visa.

The shift in mobility power has also been observed, with traditional transatlantic leaders no longer holding undisputed positions. While Europe remains dominant in the highest rankings, the United States has notably fallen from 1st place to 10th, and the UK has also slipped from 3rd to 6th position since 2006, with 38 passports now sharing Top 10 statuses, an increase from 26 in 2006.

An intriguing analysis by Henley Partners reveals a significant positive correlation between the standings of the Henley Passport Index (HPI) and the Global Peace Index (GPI) over the past two decades (Spearman rank correlation ρ = 0.65, p < 0.001). However, notable outliers emerge from the data. Countries whose passport rankings defy their peace scores include Israel (ranked 159th on GPI but 18th on HPI), the United States (134th on GPI, 10th on HPI), France (99th on GPI, 4th on HPI), Ukraine (160th on GPI, 31st on HPI), UAE (73rd on GPI, 2nd on HPI), South Korea (57th on GPI, 2nd on HPI), Brazil (124th on GPI, 16th on HPI), and Russia (163rd on GPI, 47th on HPI).

The most glaring discrepancies arise with the United States and Israel. Despite ranking toward the bottom of the Global Peace Index, both countries maintain notably strong passports, reflecting the multifaceted nature of passport power in the context of global dynamics.

In the Global South, the narrative shifts, as peace does not equate with enhanced mobility. Limited diplomatic clout, scarce reciprocal visa agreements, and a global visa framework that favors more affluent nations continue to hinder access for many countries. Professor Mehari Taddele Maru's recent research sheds light on how certain contemporary visa policies may reinforce existing biases against travelers from Africa, posing critical questions around equity and fairness in global mobility.

These findings set the stage for discussions at the upcoming Safe Haven Forum hosted by Henley Partners. The event aims to unite geopolitical thought leaders, investors, policymakers, and wealth advisors to address themes of resilience through residence, citizenship, and wealth diversification amidst an increasingly fragmented global environment.